CD Marathon 59%Draw 21%Estrella Roja 21%Expected goals 1.77 – 0.93
59%
Betarazi pick
CD Marathon to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.70 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.65Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.91 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCD Marathon to win ✓59% · @1.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.21
CD Marathon vs Estrella Roja: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Estrella Roja travel to face CD Marathon on Sunday 6 September in the Liga Nacional, with Estadio Yankel Rosenthal the venue – the ball rolls at 02:30 WAT.
Current form
CD Marathon, last 5: WWDLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Génesis, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Estrella Roja, last 5: DWDWL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with CD Olimpia, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately.
Momentum favours CD Marathon, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.6 for Estrella Roja.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give CD Marathon 1.8 xG, Estrella Roja 0.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – CD Marathon 59%, draw 21%, Estrella Roja 21%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was CD Marathon to win (59%, odds 1.65). Most likely score in line with that pick: CD Marathon 1–0 Estrella Roja. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
CD Marathon59%fair 1.70 · @1.65
Draw21%fair 4.87 · @3.30
Estrella Roja21%fair 4.82 · @5.00
2.70Expected goals
1.77CD Marathon xG
0.93Estrella Roja xG
58%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%
From our goals model: CD Marathon 1.8 – 0.9 Estrella Roja expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CD Marathon to win✓
59%
1.70
1.65
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.91 ▲
Draw no bet
CD Marathon (draw no bet)✓
74%
1.35
–
Asian handicap
Estrella Roja +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
CD Marathon to score first✓
61%
1.63
–
Half-time result
CD Marathon ahead at half-time✓
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CD Marathon / FT CD Marathon✓
36%
2.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.21
–
Recent results
CD Marathon – last 6
WWDLWW
29 Aug
@ Génesis
2–1
W
27 Aug
vs Real Estelí
3–0
W
23 Aug
vs Real Espana
1–1
D
20 Aug
vs Alianza
0–1
L
16 Aug
@ Atlético Choloma
1–0
W
14 Aug
@ Antigua GFC
3–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Estrella Roja – last 5
DWDWL
30 Aug
vs CD Olimpia
2–2
D
23 Aug
vs Juticalpa
5–2
W
16 Aug
@ Lobos Upnfm
2–2
D
10 Aug
@ CD Motagua
2–0
W
3 Aug
vs Olancho
0–1
L
2.2Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CD Marathon and Estrella Roja.
What is the prediction for CD Marathon vs Estrella Roja?
Our pick is CD Marathon to win with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win CD Marathon vs Estrella Roja?
On our numbers CD Marathon have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Estrella Roja 21%.
How many goals will there be in CD Marathon vs Estrella Roja?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CD Marathon vs Estrella Roja?
Our predicted score is CD Marathon 1–0 Estrella Roja, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is CD Marathon vs Estrella Roja?
CD Marathon vs Estrella Roja (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Yankel Rosenthal.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
