Bærum vs Lillestrom: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Bærum welcome Lillestrom for a NM Cupen fixture on Thursday 1 October (17:00 WAT).
Current form
Bærum, last 5: LLLWD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Vålerenga II, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Lillestrom, last 5: LLWWW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Viking, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bærum 0.8 xG, Lillestrom 2.7 xG – a total near 3.5. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 68% and GG at 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bærum 9%, draw 15%, Lillestrom 76%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.65.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (57%, odds 1.65). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bærum 1–2 Lillestrom. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bærum9%fair 11.34 · @15.00
Draw15%fair 6.63 · @8.00
Lillestrom76%fair 1.31 · @1.12
3.50Expected goals
0.83Bærum xG
2.67Lillestrom xG
57%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–211%
0–310%
1–29%
0–18%
1–38%
1–17%
From our goals model: Bærum 0.8 – 2.7 Lillestrom expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lillestrom to win✓
76%
1.31
1.12
Double chance
Lillestrom or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.65
Draw no bet
Lillestrom (draw no bet)✓
90%
1.12
–
Asian handicap
Lillestrom -1 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
–
First team to score
Lillestrom to score first✓
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
Lillestrom ahead at half-time✓
57%
1.76
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lillestrom / FT Lillestrom✓
53%
1.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.20
–
Recent results
Bærum – last 6
LLLWDW
26 Sep
@ Vålerenga II
0–2
L
19 Sep
vs Union Carl Berner
1–2
L
13 Sep
@ Lokomotiv Oslo
2–5
L
5 Sep
vs Nordstrand
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Konnerud
1–1
D
22 Aug
vs Mjondalen
4–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Lillestrom – last 6
LLWWWL
20 Sep
@ Viking
0–3
L
17 Sep
vs Torreense
1–2
L
12 Sep
vs Valerenga
2–0
W
5 Sep
@ Brann
2–1
W
2 Sep
@ Aurskog Finstadbru
3–0
W
30 Aug
vs Fredrikstad
1–4
L
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bærum and Lillestrom.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Bærum vs Lillestrom?
On our numbers Bærum have a 9% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Lillestrom 76%.
How many goals will there be in Bærum vs Lillestrom?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bærum vs Lillestrom?
Our predicted score is Bærum 1–2 Lillestrom, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Bærum vs Lillestrom?
Bærum vs Lillestrom (NM Cupen) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Madla0
Viking3