Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.57
Atletico-MG vs Gremio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 7 November the Copa Do Brasil brings Atletico-MG against Gremio at MRV Arena. Kick-off: 22:00 WAT.
Current form
Atletico-MG, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Botafogo, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Gremio, last 5: LWWWL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Flamengo, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Gremio, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.5 for Atletico-MG.
Head to head
When they last met (1 Nov 2026) it ended Gremio 2–0 Atletico-MG. The last 3 head-to-heads: Atletico-MG 1 win, Gremio 2, draws 0. Those games averaged 2.7 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico-MG 1.7 xG, Gremio 0.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 47%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico-MG 63%, draw 19%, Gremio 18%.
Lower-risk option: Atletico-MG or draw (82%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.91.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico-MG 1–0 Gremio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico-MG63%fair 1.59 · @1.57
Draw19%fair 5.35 · @4.00
Gremio18%fair 5.43 · @5.25
2.40Expected goals
1.68Atletico-MG xG
0.72Gremio xG
47%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%
From our goals model: Atletico-MG 1.7 – 0.7 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Gremio?
On our numbers Atletico-MG have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Gremio 18%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico-MG vs Gremio?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico-MG vs Gremio?
Our predicted score is Atletico-MG 1–0 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Atletico-MG vs Gremio?
Atletico-MG vs Gremio (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at MRV Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
