Value bet: Estudiantes de Merida FC to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMonagas SC to win ✓43% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓8% · fair 11.78
Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Monagas SC welcome Estudiantes de Merida FC for a Primera División fixture on Sunday 11 October (23:00 WAT). In the table, Monagas SC are 4th, among the top four, on 3 points after 5 matches; Estudiantes de Merida FC are 9th (in the drop zone) with 17. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Monagas SC, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Mineros de Guyana, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Estudiantes de Merida FC, last 5: DLLDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Trujillanos FC, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Monagas SC, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.0 for Estudiantes de Merida FC.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Monagas SC 1.3 xG, Estudiantes de Merida FC 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Monagas SC 43%, draw 22%, Estudiantes de Merida FC 35%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Estudiantes de Merida FC to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (58%, odds 1.73). Most likely score in line with that pick: Monagas SC 1–1 Estudiantes de Merida FC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Monagas SC43%fair 2.33 · @2.15
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.30
Estudiantes de Merida FC35%fair 2.88 · @3.10
2.48Expected goals
1.32Monagas SC xG
1.16Estudiantes de Merida FC xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: Monagas SC 1.3 – 1.2 Estudiantes de Merida FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monagas SC to win✓
43%
2.33
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.74
1.73
Draw no bet
Monagas SC (draw no bet)✓
55%
1.81
–
Asian handicap
Estudiantes de Merida FC +1 (Asian handicap)
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Monagas SC to score first✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monagas SC / FT Monagas SC✓
23%
4.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
8%
11.78
–
Recent results
Monagas SC – last 6
LWDWWL
7 Oct
@ Mineros de Guyana
0–1
L
19 Sep
vs Zamora FC
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ Rayo Zuliano
1–1
D
13 Sep
@ Caracas FC
1–0
W
9 Sep
vs Bolívar
5–1
W
6 Sep
vs Metropolitanos FC
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Estudiantes de Merida FC – last 6
DLLDWD
20 Sep
vs Trujillanos FC
1–1
D
13 Sep
@ Portuguesa FC
1–2
L
7 Sep
@ Carabobo FC
0–1
L
3 Sep
vs UCV
1–1
D
31 Aug
@ Deportivo La Guaira
2–1
W
22 Aug
vs Puerto Cabello
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monagas SC and Estudiantes de Merida FC.
What is the prediction for Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC?
On our numbers Monagas SC have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Estudiantes de Merida FC 35%.
How many goals will there be in Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC?
Our predicted score is Monagas SC 1–1 Estudiantes de Merida FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC?
Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
