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Hartford Athletic v Louisville City: numbers & prediction

USL League One Cup · USA · Trinity Health Stadium
Hartford Athletic 35%Draw 21%Louisville City 44% Expected goals 1.42 – 1.62
56%
Betarazi pick

Over 2.5 goals

Fair pick · fair odds 1.78 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗

4/10Rating
1.75Odds

Picks by market

ResultLouisville City to win ✓44% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · fair 1.93
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.23

Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

20:00 WAT, Sunday 4 October: Hartford Athletic v Louisville City in the USL League One Cup, played at Trinity Health Stadium. In the table, Hartford Athletic are 9th, upper half, on 9 points after 4 matches; Louisville City are 1st (leading the league) with 12. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Hartford Athletic, last 5: DDWWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Louisville City, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Louisville City, last 5: DWLDD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Hartford Athletic, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Hartford Athletic, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.2 for Louisville City.

Head to head

When they last met (26 Sep 2026) it ended Hartford Athletic 2–2 Louisville City. The last 2 head-to-heads: Hartford Athletic 0 wins, Louisville City 1, draws 1. Those games averaged 2.5 goals and saw GG land 1 time.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Hartford Athletic 1.4 xG, Louisville City 1.6 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 56% and GG at 52%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Hartford Athletic 35%, draw 21%, Louisville City 44%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (56%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Hartford Athletic 1–2 Louisville City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Hartford Athletic35%fair 2.86 · @2.62
Draw21%fair 4.66 · @3.40
Louisville City44%fair 2.30 · @2.40
3.04Expected goals
1.42Hartford Athletic xG
1.62Louisville City xG
52%Both score
56%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%

From our goals model: Hartford Athletic 1.4 – 1.6 Louisville City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultLouisville City to win ✓44%2.302.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79%1.271.30
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗52%1.93–
Draw no betLouisville City (draw no bet) ✓55%1.80–
Asian handicapHartford Athletic +1 (Asian handicap)73%1.37–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗81%1.24–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗56%1.781.75
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓64%1.57–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓81%1.24–
First team to scoreLouisville City to score first ✓51%1.97–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗39%2.55–
Half-time / full-timeHT Louisville City / FT Louisville City ✓25%3.96–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9%11.23–

Recent results

Hartford Athletic – last 6

DDWWWD
26 Sepvs Louisville City2–2D
20 Sep@ Las Vegas Lights1–1D
16 Sepvs Sporting JAX2–0W
13 Sepvs Tampa Bay Rowdies3–1W
9 Sepvs Colorado Springs2–1W
6 Sep@ Detroit City1–1D
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Louisville City – last 6

DWLDDD
26 Sep@ Hartford Athletic2–2D
20 Sepvs Loudoun United2–1W
13 Sepvs El Paso Locomotive1–2L
9 Sep@ San Antonio0–0D
6 Sep@ Rhode Island1–1D
30 Augvs Detroit City0–0D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

26 Sep 2026Hartford Athletic v Louisville City2–2
5 Jul 2026Louisville City v Hartford Athletic1–0
Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City head-to-head page →

USL League One Cup table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Louisville City4400+912
2Colorado Springs4400+912
3Tampa Bay Rowdies4400+912
4San Antonio4400+512
5Charlotte Independence4400+412
6Miami FC4301+69
7Charleston Battery4301+59
8Birmingham Legion4301+59
9Hartford Athletic4301+59
10Rhode Island4301+49
11Sacramento Republic4301+49
12Boise4301+39
13New Mexico United4301+39
14Indy Eleven4301+39
15One Knoxville4301+29
16Spokane Velocity430109
17Brooklyn4202+46
18Pittsburgh Riverhounds4202+36
19Lexington420206
20El Paso Locomotive420206
21Detroit City420206
22Alta4202-16
23Union Omaha4202-26
24Portland Hearts of Pine4202-36
25Monterey Bay4103-23
26Oakland Roots4103-23
27Sporting JAX4103-23
28FC Tulsa4103-33
29Greenville Triumph4103-33
30Las Vegas Lights4103-33
31Loudoun United4103-33
32Forward Madison4103-43
33Westchester SC4103-43
34Corpus Christi4103-43
35Phoenix Rising4103-53
36NY Cosmos4103-63
37Naples4103-63
38Richmond Kickers4103-63
39Sarasota Paradise4103-73
40Chattanooga Red Wolves4004-50
41Fort Wayne4004-60
42Orange County SC4004-60

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.

Who will win Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City?

On our numbers Hartford Athletic have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Louisville City 44%.

How many goals will there be in Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City?

Our predicted score is Hartford Athletic 1–2 Louisville City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City?

Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City (USL League One Cup) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Trinity Health Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.