Ferrymead Bays vs Wellington Phoenix II: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Wellington Phoenix II travel to face Ferrymead Bays on Saturday 7 November in the National League National – the ball rolls at 04:00 WAT. In the table, Ferrymead Bays are 9th, in the drop zone, on 7 points after 7 matches; Wellington Phoenix II are 10th (in the drop zone) with 4. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Ferrymead Bays, last 5: LLLLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Birkenhead United, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Wellington Phoenix II, last 5: WLLLD Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Auckland FC 2, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 3.4 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ferrymead Bays 2.4 xG, Wellington Phoenix II 1.1 xG – a total near 3.4. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 69% and GG at 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ferrymead Bays 64%, draw 21%, Wellington Phoenix II 15%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.37.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (69%, odds 1.29). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ferrymead Bays 2–1 Wellington Phoenix II. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ferrymead Bays64%fair 1.56 · @1.53
Draw21%fair 4.78 · @4.30
Wellington Phoenix II15%fair 6.73 · @4.30
3.45Expected goals
2.36Ferrymead Bays xG
1.09Wellington Phoenix II xG
64%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–09%
1–18%
3–18%
1–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Ferrymead Bays 2.4 – 1.1 Wellington Phoenix II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ferrymead Bays to win✓
64%
1.56
1.53
Double chance
Ferrymead Bays or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.56
1.37
Draw no bet
Ferrymead Bays (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Ferrymead Bays -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
86%
1.17
1.06
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
69%
1.46
1.29
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.87
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.36
First team to score
Ferrymead Bays to score first✓
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
Ferrymead Bays ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ferrymead Bays / FT Ferrymead Bays✓
43%
2.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.37
–
Recent results
Ferrymead Bays – last 6
LLLLWD
1 Nov
@ Birkenhead United
0–2
L
23 Oct
vs Cashmere Technical
0–2
L
18 Oct
@ Auckland United
0–2
L
10 Oct
vs Miramar
1–4
L
3 Oct
@ Wellington Olympic
2–1
W
26 Sep
vs Eastern Suburbs
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Wellington Phoenix II – last 5
WLLLD
31 Oct
vs Auckland FC 2
3–2
W
25 Oct
@ Napier City Rovers
1–3
L
10 Oct
vs Birkenhead United
0–1
L
4 Oct
@ Cashmere Technical
0–10
L
26 Sep
vs Auckland United
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
3.4Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ferrymead Bays and Wellington Phoenix II.
What is the prediction for Ferrymead Bays vs Wellington Phoenix II?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Ferrymead Bays vs Wellington Phoenix II?
On our numbers Ferrymead Bays have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Wellington Phoenix II 15%.
How many goals will there be in Ferrymead Bays vs Wellington Phoenix II?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ferrymead Bays vs Wellington Phoenix II?
Our predicted score is Ferrymead Bays 2–1 Wellington Phoenix II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Ferrymead Bays vs Wellington Phoenix II?
Ferrymead Bays vs Wellington Phoenix II (National League National) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 04:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
