Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.73Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.00 – our chance 56% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNacional Asuncion to win ✗62% · @1.73
Double chanceNacional Asuncion or draw ✓85% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗60% · fair 1.68
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗18% · fair 5.47
Independiente F.b.c. vs Nacional Asuncion: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Nacional Asuncion travel to face Independiente F.b.c. on Wednesday 30 September in the Copa Paraguay – the ball rolls at 21:00 WAT.
Current form
Independiente F.b.c., last 5: LWWWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Sportivo Carapeguá, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Nacional Asuncion, last 5: DWWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Sportivo Ameliano, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente F.b.c. 0.6 xG, Nacional Asuncion 1.6 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 56% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente F.b.c. 15%, draw 24%, Nacional Asuncion 62%.
Lower-risk option: Nacional Asuncion or draw (85%) at 1.17.
Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Nacional Asuncion to win (62%, odds 1.73 – longer than our fair 1.62, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente F.b.c. 0–1 Nacional Asuncion. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente F.b.c.15%fair 6.90 · @4.00
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @3.50
Nacional Asuncion62%fair 1.62 · @1.73
2.14Expected goals
0.58Independiente F.b.c. xG
1.56Nacional Asuncion xG
40%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–118%
0–214%
0–012%
1–111%
1–28%
0–37%
From our goals model: Independiente F.b.c. 0.6 – 1.6 Nacional Asuncion expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nacional Asuncion to win✗
62%
1.62
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Nacional Asuncion or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
60%
1.68
–
Draw no bet
Nacional Asuncion (draw no bet)
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Nacional Asuncion -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
2.00 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Nacional Asuncion to score first
64%
1.56
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nacional Asuncion / FT Nacional Asuncion✗
37%
2.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
18%
5.47
–
Recent results
Independiente F.b.c. – last 6
LWWWDL
25 Sep
vs Sportivo Carapeguá
0–1
L
20 Sep
@ 12 de Junio VH
4–0
W
14 Sep
vs Encarnación
1–0
W
9 Sep
@ Deportivo Santani
2–1
W
4 Sep
vs Fernando De La Mora
0–0
D
28 Aug
@ 3 de Noviembre
2–5
L
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Nacional Asuncion – last 6
DWWLWW
25 Sep
vs Sportivo Ameliano
1–1
D
18 Sep
vs 2 de Mayo
3–0
W
13 Sep
@ Rubio NU
1–0
W
7 Sep
@ Cerro Porteno
0–1
L
2 Sep
vs Libertad Asuncion
3–0
W
28 Aug
@ Club Sp. San Lorenzo
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente F.b.c. and Nacional Asuncion.
What is the prediction for Independiente F.b.c. vs Nacional Asuncion?
Our pick is Nacional Asuncion to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Independiente F.b.c. vs Nacional Asuncion?
On our numbers Independiente F.b.c. have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Nacional Asuncion 62%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente F.b.c. vs Nacional Asuncion?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente F.b.c. vs Nacional Asuncion?
Our predicted score is Independiente F.b.c. 0–1 Nacional Asuncion, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Independiente F.b.c. vs Nacional Asuncion?
Independiente F.b.c. vs Nacional Asuncion (Copa Paraguay) kicks off on Wednesday 30 September 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Cerro Porteno2
Rubio NU1