Independiente del Valle 65%Draw 23%Universidad Catolica 12%Expected goals 2.13 – 0.85
65%
Betarazi pick
Independiente del Valle to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win ✗65% · @1.62
Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw ✓88% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.22
Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Universidad Catolica travel to face Independiente del Valle on Friday 23 October in the Liga Pro, with Estadio Banco Guayaquil the venue – the ball rolls at 21:30 WAT. In the table, Independiente del Valle are 1st on 84 points after 35 matches; Universidad Catolica are 3rd with 54. There are 30 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Independiente del Valle, last 5: LWWDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Macara, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Universidad Catolica, last 5: DLLWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Barcelona SC, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (29 Aug 2026) it ended Independiente del Valle 2–2 Universidad Catolica. The last 3 head-to-heads: Independiente del Valle 2 wins, Universidad Catolica 0, draws 1. Those games averaged 4.0 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente del Valle 2.1 xG, Universidad Catolica 0.8 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 57% and GG at 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente del Valle 65%, draw 23%, Universidad Catolica 12%.
Lower-risk option: Independiente del Valle or draw (88%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.67.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Independiente del Valle to win (65%, odds 1.62 – longer than our fair 1.54, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente del Valle 2–0 Universidad Catolica. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente del Valle65%fair 1.54 · @1.62
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.60
Universidad Catolica12%fair 8.55 · @4.50
2.98Expected goals
2.13Independiente del Valle xG
0.85Universidad Catolica xG
58%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Independiente del Valle 2.1 – 0.8 Universidad Catolica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✗
65%
1.54
1.62 ▲
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.67
Draw no bet
Independiente del Valle (draw no bet)
85%
1.18
–
Asian handicap
Independiente del Valle -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
First team to score
Independiente del Valle to score first✗
68%
1.47
–
Half-time result
Independiente del Valle ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✗
What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica?
Our pick is Independiente del Valle to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica?
On our numbers Independiente del Valle have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Universidad Catolica 12%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica?
Our predicted score is Independiente del Valle 2–0 Universidad Catolica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica?
Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica (Liga Pro) kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
