South Melbourne 19%Draw 20%Melbourne Victory 61%Expected goals 1.06 – 2.07
81%
Betarazi pick
Melbourne Victory or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Melbourne Victory to win @ 1.75 – our chance 61% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMelbourne Victory to win ✗61% · @1.75
Double chanceMelbourne Victory or draw ✓81% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.07
South Melbourne vs Melbourne Victory: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Melbourne Victory travel to face South Melbourne on Saturday 10 October in the Australia Cup, with AAMI Park the venue – the ball rolls at 09:35 WAT.
Current form
South Melbourne, last 5: WLWLW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Lions, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Melbourne Victory, last 5: DWDDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Viettel, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give South Melbourne 1.1 xG, Melbourne Victory 2.1 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 61% for three or more goals, 60% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – South Melbourne 19%, draw 20%, Melbourne Victory 61%.
Lower-risk option: Melbourne Victory or draw (81%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Melbourne Victory to win @1.75 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Melbourne Victory or draw (81%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: South Melbourne 1–2 Melbourne Victory. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
South Melbourne19%fair 5.32 · @4.00
Draw20%fair 4.91 · @3.30
Melbourne Victory61%fair 1.64 · @1.75
3.13Expected goals
1.06South Melbourne xG
2.07Melbourne Victory xG
60%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–210%
1–110%
0–29%
0–19%
1–37%
0–36%
From our goals model: South Melbourne 1.1 – 2.1 Melbourne Victory expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Melbourne Victory to win✗
61%
1.64
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Melbourne Victory or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.67
Draw no bet
Melbourne Victory (draw no bet)
76%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Melbourne Victory -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
First team to score
Melbourne Victory to score first✗
63%
1.58
–
Half-time result
Melbourne Victory ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Melbourne Victory / FT Melbourne Victory✗
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.07
–
Recent results
South Melbourne – last 6
WLWLWL
15 Sep
vs Lions
3–1
W
11 Sep
@ Oakleigh Cannons
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Heidelberg United
2–1
W
29 Aug
@ Sunshine Georgies
0–1
L
26 Aug
@ Preston Lions
2–1
W
23 Aug
vs Heidelberg United
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Melbourne Victory – last 6
DWDDWL
16 Sep
@ Viettel
1–1
D
9 Sep
@ Sydney
2–0
W
19 Aug
@ APIA Leichhardt Tigers
0–0
D
8 Aug
@ Western Sydney Wanderers
0–0
D
26 Jul
@ Kingborough Lions
4–0
W
2 May
vs Sydney
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between South Melbourne and Melbourne Victory.
What is the prediction for South Melbourne vs Melbourne Victory?
Our pick is Melbourne Victory or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win South Melbourne vs Melbourne Victory?
On our numbers South Melbourne have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Melbourne Victory 61%.
How many goals will there be in South Melbourne vs Melbourne Victory?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for South Melbourne vs Melbourne Victory?
Our predicted score is South Melbourne 1–2 Melbourne Victory, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is South Melbourne vs Melbourne Victory?
South Melbourne vs Melbourne Victory (Australia Cup) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 09:35 (West Africa Time) at AAMI Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
