Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.60 – our chance 50% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +30%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAntigua and Barbuda to win ✓77% · @1.07
Double chanceAntigua and Barbuda or draw ✓90% · fair 1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓60% · @1.28
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗21% · fair 4.73
Antigua and Barbuda vs Anguilla: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:00 WAT, Sunday 27 September: Antigua and Barbuda v Anguilla in the CONCACAF Nations League.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Antigua and Barbuda 1.8 xG, Anguilla 0.3 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 50% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Antigua and Barbuda 77%, draw 13%, Anguilla 10%.
GG/NG: NG (60%) at 1.28.
Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @2.60 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 50%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (70%, odds 1.62 – longer than our fair 1.42, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Antigua and Barbuda 1–0 Anguilla. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Antigua and Barbuda77%fair 1.29 · @1.07
Draw13%fair 7.89 · @9.50
Anguilla10%fair 9.96 · @34.00
2.14Expected goals
1.80Antigua and Barbuda xG
0.34Anguilla xG
40%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–021%
2–019%
0–012%
3–011%
1–17%
2–16%
From our goals model: Antigua and Barbuda 1.8 – 0.3 Anguilla expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Antigua and Barbuda to win✓
77%
1.29
1.07
Double chance
Antigua and Barbuda or draw✓
90%
1.11
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.28
Draw no bet
Antigua and Barbuda (draw no bet)✓
89%
1.13
–
Asian handicap
Antigua and Barbuda -1 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
2.60 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
1.62 ▲
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
84%
1.19
1.25 ▲
First team to score
Antigua and Barbuda to score first✓
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
Antigua and Barbuda ahead at half-time✓
50%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Antigua and Barbuda / FT Antigua and Barbuda✓
47%
2.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
21%
4.73
–
Recent results
Antigua and Barbuda – last 1
L
24 Sep
@ Aruba
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Anguilla – last 1
W
26 Mar
@ Bahamas
3–1
W
3.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Antigua and Barbuda and Anguilla.
What is the prediction for Antigua and Barbuda vs Anguilla?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Antigua and Barbuda vs Anguilla?
On our numbers Antigua and Barbuda have a 77% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Anguilla 10%.
How many goals will there be in Antigua and Barbuda vs Anguilla?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Antigua and Barbuda vs Anguilla?
Our predicted score is Antigua and Barbuda 1–0 Anguilla, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Antigua and Barbuda vs Anguilla?
Antigua and Barbuda vs Anguilla (CONCACAF Nations League) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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