Maldives vs Lebanon: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 1 October the Friendlies brings Maldives against Lebanon at Dolen Omurzakov Stadium. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT.
Current form
Maldives, last 5: LLDLW Their latest outing: 0–5 defeat to Kyrgyzstan, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.6 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Maldives 1.4 xG, Lebanon 1.4 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Maldives 46%, draw 12%, Lebanon 42%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 3.50.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (52%, odds 3.50 – longer than our fair 1.94, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Maldives 1–1 Lebanon. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Maldives46%fair 2.19 · @1.05
Draw12%fair 8.27 · @13.00
Lebanon42%fair 2.36 · @41.00
2.80Expected goals
1.44Maldives xG
1.36Lebanon xG
52%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–06%
From our goals model: Maldives 1.4 – 1.4 Lebanon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Maldives to win✗
46%
2.19
1.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
88%
1.14
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
3.50 ▲
Draw no bet
Maldives (draw no bet)✗
52%
1.93
–
Asian handicap
Lebanon +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
85%
1.18
–
First team to score
Maldives to score first✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Maldives / FT Maldives✗
23%
4.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.69
–
Recent results
Maldives – last 5
LLDLW
28 Sep
@ Kyrgyzstan
0–5
L
24 Sep
@ China
0–3
L
7 Jun
vs Bangladesh U23
1–1
D
4 Jun
vs Pakistan
0–3
L
31 Mar
vs Timor-Leste
2–1
W
0.6Scored / game
2.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Lebanon – last 1
L
4 Jun
vs Yemen
0–2
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Maldives and Lebanon.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 3.50.
Who will win Maldives vs Lebanon?
On our numbers Maldives have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Lebanon 42%.
How many goals will there be in Maldives vs Lebanon?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Maldives vs Lebanon?
Our predicted score is Maldives 1–1 Lebanon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Maldives vs Lebanon?
Maldives vs Lebanon (Friendlies) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Dolen Omurzakov Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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