Value bet: Fard Alborz to win @ 2.51 – our chance 43% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFard Alborz to win ✗43% · @2.51
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.32
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · @1.52
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗74% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗18% · fair 5.41
Naft Gachsaran vs Fard Alborz: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:30 WAT, Monday 19 October: Naft Gachsaran v Fard Alborz in the Azadegan League. In the table, Naft Gachsaran are 8th, upper half, on 12 points after 9 matches; Fard Alborz are 3rd (among the top four) with 17.
Current form
Naft Gachsaran, last 5: LDDLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Pars Jonoubi JAM, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game.
Fard Alborz, last 5: WLDWD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Shahin Bandar Ameri, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Fard Alborz, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.5 for Naft Gachsaran.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Naft Gachsaran 0.7 xG, Fard Alborz 0.9 xG – a total near 1.5. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 74%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Naft Gachsaran 32%, draw 25%, Fard Alborz 43%.
GG/NG: NG (55%) at 1.52.
Price worth noting: Fard Alborz to win @2.51 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (74%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Naft Gachsaran 0–0 Fard Alborz. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Naft Gachsaran32%fair 3.12 · @2.78
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @2.75
Fard Alborz43%fair 2.33 · @2.51
1.54Expected goals
0.68Naft Gachsaran xG
0.87Fard Alborz xG
45%Both score
26%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–021%
0–118%
1–014%
1–113%
0–28%
1–25%
From our goals model: Naft Gachsaran 0.7 – 0.9 Fard Alborz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fard Alborz to win✗
43%
2.33
2.51 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.32
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
1.52
Draw no bet
Fard Alborz (draw no bet)✗
57%
1.75
–
Asian handicap
Naft Gachsaran +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.61
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
1.33
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
89%
1.13
1.07
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
98%
1.02
–
First team to score
Fard Alborz to score first
44%
2.27
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
57%
1.77
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
28%
3.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
18%
5.41
–
Recent results
Naft Gachsaran – last 6
LDDLDL
12 Oct
@ Pars Jonoubi JAM
0–1
L
4 Oct
vs Novin Ahvaz
1–1
D
28 Sep
@ Naft Bandar Abbas
0–0
D
22 Sep
vs Ario Eslamshahr
0–1
L
16 Sep
@ Be'sat Kermanshah
0–0
D
16 Jul
vs Mes Shahr-e Babak
0–2
L
0.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Fard Alborz – last 6
WLDWDD
11 Oct
vs Shahin Bandar Ameri
3–0
W
4 Oct
@ Naft Masjed Soleyman
0–1
L
27 Sep
vs Shenavarsazi Qeshm
0–0
D
21 Sep
@ Niroye Zamini
1–0
W
15 Sep
vs Mes Kerman
1–1
D
16 Jul
@ Damash Gilanian
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Naft Gachsaran and Fard Alborz.
What is the prediction for Naft Gachsaran vs Fard Alborz?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Naft Gachsaran vs Fard Alborz?
On our numbers Naft Gachsaran have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Fard Alborz 43%.
How many goals will there be in Naft Gachsaran vs Fard Alborz?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Naft Gachsaran vs Fard Alborz?
Our predicted score is Naft Gachsaran 0–0 Fard Alborz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Naft Gachsaran vs Fard Alborz?
Naft Gachsaran vs Fard Alborz (Azadegan League) kicks off on Monday 19 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
