Tiaret v Usm El Harrach Prediction & Expected Goals (26 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultUsm El Harrach to win ✗61% · @1.95

Double chanceUsm El Harrach or draw ✓87% · @1.18

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗61% · fair 1.64

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18

Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗19% · fair 5.18

Tiaret vs Usm El Harrach: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Tiaret welcome Usm El Harrach for a Ligue 2 fixture on Saturday 26 September (16:00 WAT). In the table, Tiaret are 13th, lower half, on 7 points after 9 matches; Usm El Harrach are 6th (upper half) with 14.

Current form

Tiaret, last 5: LLLLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to WA Tlemcen, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.

Usm El Harrach, last 5: WWDLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over ASM Oran, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Usm El Harrach, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.5 for Tiaret.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Tiaret 0.5 xG, Usm El Harrach 1.5 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Tiaret 13%, draw 26%, Usm El Harrach 61%.
Lower-risk option: Usm El Harrach or draw (87%) at 1.18.
Price worth noting: Usm El Harrach to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 61%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tiaret 0–1 Usm El Harrach. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Tiaret13%fair 7.63 · @3.90

Draw26%fair 3.84 · @2.90

Usm El Harrach61%fair 1.64 · @1.95

2.06Expected goals

0.55Tiaret xG

1.51Usm El Harrach xG

39%Both score

35%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–119%

0–215%

0–013%

1–111%

1–28%

0–37%

From our goals model: Tiaret 0.5 – 1.5 Usm El Harrach expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Usm El Harrach to win ✗	61%	1.64	1.95 ▲
Double chance	Usm El Harrach or draw ✓	87%	1.15	1.18
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✗	61%	1.64	–
Draw no bet	Usm El Harrach (draw no bet)	82%	1.22	–
Asian handicap	Usm El Harrach -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	61%	1.64	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	61%	1.64	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	65%	1.53	1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	85%	1.18	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	94%	1.06	–
First team to score	Usm El Harrach to score first	64%	1.56	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	47%	2.12	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Usm El Harrach / FT Usm El Harrach ✗	37%	2.70	–
Correct score	Correct score 0–1 ✗	19%	5.18	–

Tiaret – last 6

LLLLWL

19 Sep	@ WA Tlemcen	1–2	L
8 May	@ Béchar Djedid	1–3	L
1 May	vs Témouchent	0–1	L
9 Apr	@ WA Mostaganem	0–3	L
17 Feb	vs WA Tlemcen	3–0	W
13 Feb	@ RC Arba	1–2	L

1.0Scored / game

1.8Conceded / game

50%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Usm El Harrach – last 6

WWDLWW

19 Sep	vs ASM Oran	1–0	W
8 May	vs WA Mostaganem	3–0	W
1 May	@ GC Mascara	1–1	D
10 Apr	vs ASM Oran	1–2	L
17 Feb	vs Témouchent	2–0	W
13 Feb	@ CRB Adrar	4–0	W

2.0Scored / game

0.5Conceded / game

33%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	GC Mascara	9	6	3	0	+13	21
2	Blida	9	6	3	0	+10	21
3	RC Kouba	9	5	4	0	+14	19
4	Mostaganem	9	4	3	2	+3	15
5	MC Saida	8	4	3	1	+3	15
6	Usm El Harrach	9	4	2	3	+2	14
7	Sidi Benali	9	4	2	3	0	14
8	ASM Oran	9	3	4	2	+6	13
9	Hussein Dey	9	4	0	5	-4	12
10	WA Mostaganem	9	2	4	3	-1	10
11	WA Tlemcen	9	2	3	4	-4	9
12	RC Arba	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	Tiaret	9	1	4	4	+1	7
14	Koléa	8	2	0	6	-8	6
15	El Bayadh	9	0	4	5	-7	4
16	Taghit	9	0	1	8	-26	1

Team

Pts

+13

+10

+14

-4

-1

-4

-2

-8

-7

-26

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Tiaret vs Usm El Harrach?

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win Tiaret vs Usm El Harrach?

On our numbers Tiaret have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Usm El Harrach 61%.

How many goals will there be in Tiaret vs Usm El Harrach?

We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 39% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Tiaret vs Usm El Harrach?

Our predicted score is Tiaret 0–1 Usm El Harrach, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.

When is Tiaret vs Usm El Harrach?

Tiaret vs Usm El Harrach (Ligue 2) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Tiaret v Usm El Harrach: numbers & prediction