Chaves vs Os Marialvas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:00 WAT, Friday 16 October: Chaves v Os Marialvas in the Taça De Portugal, played at Estadio Municipal de Chaves.
Current form
Chaves, last 5: DLWWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Lusitânia Lourosa, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Os Marialvas, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Sertanense, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Os Marialvas, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.3 for Chaves.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Chaves 2.4 xG, Os Marialvas 0.9 xG – a total near 3.3. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 65% and GG at 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Chaves 70%, draw 17%, Os Marialvas 14%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Chaves to win (70%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Chaves 2–0 Os Marialvas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Chaves70%fair 1.43 · @1.25
Draw17%fair 6.03 · @4.80
Os Marialvas14%fair 7.41 · @8.50
3.33Expected goals
2.39Chaves xG
0.94Os Marialvas xG
57%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
3–08%
1–18%
3–18%
From our goals model: Chaves 2.4 – 0.9 Os Marialvas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chaves to win✓
70%
1.43
1.25
Double chance
Chaves or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.85 ▲
Draw no bet
Chaves (draw no bet)✓
84%
1.19
–
Asian handicap
Chaves -1 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
First team to score
Chaves to score first✓
69%
1.45
–
Half-time result
Chaves ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chaves / FT Chaves✓
46%
2.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.41
–
Recent results
Chaves – last 6
DLWWLD
11 Oct
@ Lusitânia Lourosa
1–1
D
4 Oct
@ Farense
0–4
L
20 Sep
@ Guarda
3–2
W
13 Sep
vs Feirense
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Felgueiras 1932
1–2
L
23 Aug
vs AVS
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Os Marialvas – last 6
DWWWWL
11 Oct
vs Sertanense
0–0
D
20 Sep
@ Ovarense
1–0
W
13 Sep
@ Nazarenos
3–0
W
6 Sep
vs Fátima
3–0
W
30 Aug
@ AD Fornos Algodres
4–0
W
23 Aug
vs Oliveira Hospital
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chaves and Os Marialvas.
What is the prediction for Chaves vs Os Marialvas?
Our pick is Chaves to win with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Chaves vs Os Marialvas?
On our numbers Chaves have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Os Marialvas 14%.
How many goals will there be in Chaves vs Os Marialvas?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chaves vs Os Marialvas?
Our predicted score is Chaves 2–0 Os Marialvas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Chaves vs Os Marialvas?
Chaves vs Os Marialvas (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Friday 16 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Chaves.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
