Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Al Ahed to win @ 1.80 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAl Ahed to win ✗62% · @1.80
Double chanceAl Ahed or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.81
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.71
Tripoli SC vs Al Ahed: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 9 October the Premier League brings Tripoli SC against Al Ahed. Kick-off: 13:00 WAT. In the table, Tripoli SC are 7th, lower half, on 7 points after 6 matches; Al Ahed are 4th (among the top four) with 9. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Al Ahed, last 5: DLDLL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Jwaaya FC, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tripoli SC 0.8 xG, Al Ahed 1.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 45%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tripoli SC 14%, draw 24%, Al Ahed 62%.
Lower-risk option: Al Ahed or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Price worth noting: Al Ahed to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Al Ahed or draw (86%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tripoli SC 0–1 Al Ahed. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tripoli SC14%fair 7.12 · @3.75
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.40
Al Ahed62%fair 1.61 · @1.80
2.67Expected goals
0.79Tripoli SC xG
1.88Al Ahed xG
45%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
0–212%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
0–07%
From our goals model: Tripoli SC 0.8 – 1.9 Al Ahed expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Al Ahed to win✗
62%
1.61
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Al Ahed or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
–
Draw no bet
Al Ahed (draw no bet)
82%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Al Ahed -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Al Ahed to score first
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Al Ahed ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Al Ahed / FT Al Ahed✗
40%
2.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.71
–
Recent results
Tripoli SC
No recent results on record.
Al Ahed – last 6
DLDLLD
1 Aug
vs Jwaaya FC
2–2
D
28 Jul
@ Al Nejmeh
1–2
L
24 Jul
vs Al Ansar
1–1
D
20 Jul
@ Jwaaya FC
0–2
L
16 Jul
vs Al Nejmeh
0–2
L
12 Jul
@ Al Ansar
3–3
D
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tripoli SC and Al Ahed.
Our pick is Al Ahed or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Tripoli SC vs Al Ahed?
On our numbers Tripoli SC have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Al Ahed 62%.
How many goals will there be in Tripoli SC vs Al Ahed?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tripoli SC vs Al Ahed?
Our predicted score is Tripoli SC 0–1 Al Ahed, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Tripoli SC vs Al Ahed?
Tripoli SC vs Al Ahed (Premier League) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
