Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 2.80 – our chance 55% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +53%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✗55% · @2.80
Double chanceMombasa Elite or draw ✓80% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗60% · fair 1.67
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗66% · @1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–0 ✗14% · fair 7.26
Mombasa Elite vs Kariobangi Sharks: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 1 October the FKF Premier League brings Mombasa Elite against Kariobangi Sharks. Kick-off: 12:00 WAT.
Current form
Mombasa Elite, last 5: DDWLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Police, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Kariobangi Sharks, last 5: WDDWD Their latest outing: 6–0 win over Sofapaka, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mombasa Elite 1.0 xG, Kariobangi Sharks 0.9 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 66% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mombasa Elite 25%, draw 55%, Kariobangi Sharks 20%.
Lower-risk option: Mombasa Elite or draw (80%) at 1.30.
Price worth noting: Draw @2.80 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Mombasa Elite or draw (80%, odds 1.30 – longer than our fair 1.25, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mombasa Elite 1–0 Kariobangi Sharks. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mombasa Elite25%fair 3.94 · @2.35
Draw55%fair 1.83 · @2.80
Kariobangi Sharks20%fair 4.99 · @3.00
1.98Expected goals
1.04Mombasa Elite xG
0.94Kariobangi Sharks xG
40%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
0–014%
1–113%
0–113%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Mombasa Elite 1.0 – 0.9 Kariobangi Sharks expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
55%
1.83
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Mombasa Elite or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
–
Draw no bet
Mombasa Elite (draw no bet)✓
56%
1.79
–
Asian handicap
Kariobangi Sharks +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.51
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.05
–
First team to score
Mombasa Elite to score first
45%
2.21
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–0✗
14%
7.26
–
Recent results
Mombasa Elite – last 6
DDWLDW
11 Sep
vs Police
0–0
D
13 Jun
@ Naivas
1–1
D
7 Jun
vs Nzoia Sugar
1–0
W
1 Jun
@ Luanda Villa
0–1
L
27 May
vs 3K
0–0
D
24 May
@ Mwatate United
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Kariobangi Sharks – last 6
WDDWDL
31 May
vs Sofapaka
6–0
W
27 May
@ Police
1–1
D
23 May
vs Homeboyz
2–2
D
10 May
vs Nairobi United
2–0
W
3 May
@ Bidco United
0–0
D
18 Apr
vs Mara Sugar
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mombasa Elite and Kariobangi Sharks.
What is the prediction for Mombasa Elite vs Kariobangi Sharks?
Our pick is Mombasa Elite or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Mombasa Elite vs Kariobangi Sharks?
On our numbers Mombasa Elite have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 55% and Kariobangi Sharks 20%.
How many goals will there be in Mombasa Elite vs Kariobangi Sharks?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mombasa Elite vs Kariobangi Sharks?
Our predicted score is Mombasa Elite 1–0 Kariobangi Sharks, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Mombasa Elite vs Kariobangi Sharks?
Mombasa Elite vs Kariobangi Sharks (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
