Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
O2.5
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.90 – our chance 57% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultATK Mohun Bagan to win ✗66% · @1.57
Double chanceATK Mohun Bagan or draw ✓85% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · fair 1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.28
ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Minerva Punjab travel to face ATK Mohun Bagan on Sunday 4 October in the IFA Shield, with Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan the venue – the ball rolls at 12:30 WAT.
Current form
ATK Mohun Bagan, last 5: DWWDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with NorthEast United, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Minerva Punjab, last 5: WWLLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over East Bengal II, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give ATK Mohun Bagan 2.3 xG, Minerva Punjab 1.0 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 57% for three or more goals, 52% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – ATK Mohun Bagan 66%, draw 20%, Minerva Punjab 15%.
Price worth noting: Over 2.5 goals @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was ATK Mohun Bagan to win (66%, odds 1.57 – longer than our fair 1.52, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: ATK Mohun Bagan 2–1 Minerva Punjab. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
ATK Mohun Bagan66%fair 1.52 · @1.57
Draw20%fair 5.11 · @3.75
Minerva Punjab15%fair 6.87 · @4.75
3.34Expected goals
2.32ATK Mohun Bagan xG
1.02Minerva Punjab xG
52%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–010%
1–18%
1–08%
3–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: ATK Mohun Bagan 2.3 – 1.0 Minerva Punjab expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
ATK Mohun Bagan to win✗
66%
1.52
1.57
Double chance
ATK Mohun Bagan or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
–
Draw no bet
ATK Mohun Bagan (draw no bet)
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
ATK Mohun Bagan -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
66%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.74
1.90 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
First team to score
ATK Mohun Bagan to score first✗
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
ATK Mohun Bagan ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT ATK Mohun Bagan / FT ATK Mohun Bagan✗
44%
2.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.28
–
Recent results
ATK Mohun Bagan – last 6
DWWDDD
29 Sep
vs NorthEast United
1–1
D
23 Sep
vs Sreenidi Deccan
6–0
W
21 May
vs SC Delhi
2–1
W
17 May
vs East Bengal II
1–1
D
12 May
vs Inter Kashi
0–0
D
9 May
@ Goa
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Minerva Punjab – last 6
WWLLDW
30 Sep
@ East Bengal II
1–0
W
27 Sep
@ Calcutta Customs
7–0
W
29 Aug
vs Horley Town
0–2
L
21 May
vs Mumbai City
0–2
L
11 May
@ East Bengal II
0–0
D
6 May
vs Chennaiyin
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between ATK Mohun Bagan and Minerva Punjab.
What is the prediction for ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab?
Our pick is ATK Mohun Bagan to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab?
On our numbers ATK Mohun Bagan have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Minerva Punjab 15%.
How many goals will there be in ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab?
Our predicted score is ATK Mohun Bagan 2–1 Minerva Punjab, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab?
ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab (IFA Shield) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
