Ajax W 55%Draw 21%Malmö FF W 24%Expected goals 2.06 – 1.30
64%
Betarazi pick
Over 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
1
Value bet: Ajax W to win @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAjax W to win ✗55% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · fair 1.81
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.45
Ajax W vs Malmö FF W: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Malmö FF W travel to face Ajax W on Wednesday 28 October in the UEFA Europa Cup Women, with Sportcomplex De Toekomst the venue – the ball rolls at 19:30 WAT.
Current form
Ajax W, last 5: LWLWW Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to PSVEindhoven W, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 4.2 a game lately.
Malmö FF W, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Kristianstad W, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Malmö FF W, collecting 2.5 points per game to 2.0 for Ajax W.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ajax W 2.1 xG, Malmö FF W 1.3 xG – a total near 3.4. That is an open game on paper: 64% for three or more goals, 55% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ajax W 55%, draw 21%, Malmö FF W 24%.
Price worth noting: Ajax W to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (64%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ajax W 2–1 Malmö FF W. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ajax W55%fair 1.83 · @1.95
Draw21%fair 4.69 · @3.70
Malmö FF W24%fair 4.19 · @3.00
3.36Expected goals
2.06Ajax W xG
1.30Malmö FF W xG
55%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–19%
2–07%
1–07%
3–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Ajax W 2.1 – 1.3 Malmö FF W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ajax W to win✗
55%
1.83
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
–
Draw no bet
Ajax W (draw no bet)✗
70%
1.44
–
Asian handicap
Malmö FF W +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
First team to score
Ajax W to score first✗
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Ajax W ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ajax W / FT Ajax W✗
35%
2.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.45
–
Recent results
Ajax W – last 6
LWLWWW
18 Oct
vs PSVEindhoven W
1–4
L
4 Oct
@ Feyenoord W
4–1
W
30 Sep
@ Aktobe W
0–1
L
26 Sep
vs ADO Den Haag W
7–1
W
23 Sep
vs Aktobe W
8–0
W
19 Sep
vs AZ W
5–1
W
4.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Malmö FF W – last 6
WWWWLW
24 Oct
@ Kristianstad W
2–1
W
17 Oct
vs AIK W
3–2
W
4 Oct
vs Rosengård W
1–0
W
30 Sep
vs St. Pölten W
3–0
W
27 Sep
@ Brommapojkarna W
1–3
L
23 Sep
@ St. Pölten W
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ajax W and Malmö FF W.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Ajax W vs Malmö FF W?
On our numbers Ajax W have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Malmö FF W 24%.
How many goals will there be in Ajax W vs Malmö FF W?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ajax W vs Malmö FF W?
Our predicted score is Ajax W 2–1 Malmö FF W, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Ajax W vs Malmö FF W?
Ajax W vs Malmö FF W (UEFA Europa Cup Women) kicks off on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Sportcomplex De Toekomst.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Brann W3
Czarni Sosnowiec W0
PSVEindhoven W0
Eintracht Frankfurt W2