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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Liverpool Montevideo v Penarol: numbers & prediction

Primera División Apertura · Uruguay · Estadio Belvedere

Liverpool Montevideo

DWWWD
1–0
FT

Penarol

DWDWD
Liverpool Montevideo 30%Draw 23%Penarol 47% Expected goals 1.03 – 1.39
56%
Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Fair pick · fair odds 1.80 · bookmaker 1.91 · Lost ✗

4/10Rating
1.91Odds

Picks by market

ResultPenarol to win ✗47% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.30

Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

22:30 WAT, Sunday 18 October: Liverpool Montevideo v Penarol in the Primera División Apertura, played at Estadio Belvedere. In the table, Liverpool Montevideo are 1st, leading the league, on 30 points after 13 matches; Penarol are 5th (upper half) with 22.

Current form

Liverpool Montevideo, last 5: DWWWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Deportivo Maldonado, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Penarol, last 5: DWDWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Progreso, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (14 Apr 2026) it ended Penarol 0–2 Liverpool Montevideo.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Liverpool Montevideo 1.0 xG, Penarol 1.4 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 56%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Liverpool Montevideo 30%, draw 23%, Penarol 47%.
  • GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.91.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (56%, odds 1.91 – longer than our fair 1.80, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Liverpool Montevideo 1–1 Penarol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Liverpool Montevideo30%fair 3.37 · @3.40
Draw23%fair 4.31 · @3.10
Penarol47%fair 2.12 · @2.10
2.42Expected goals
1.03Liverpool Montevideo xG
1.39Penarol xG
56%Both score
44%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
0–112%
1–09%
0–09%
1–29%
0–29%

From our goals model: Liverpool Montevideo 1.0 – 1.4 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPenarol to win ✗47%2.122.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77%1.301.33
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗56%1.801.91 ▲
Draw no betPenarol (draw no bet) ✗61%1.63–
Asian handicapLiverpool Montevideo +1 (Asian handicap) ✓72%1.39–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗70%1.44–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓56%1.77–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77%1.29–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓90%1.11–
First team to scorePenarol to score first ✗52%1.91–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓45%2.24–
Half-time / full-timeHT Penarol / FT Penarol ✗27%3.77–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9%11.30–

Recent results

Liverpool Montevideo – last 6

DWWWDL
10 Oct@ Deportivo Maldonado1–1D
3 Octvs Progreso3–2W
27 Sep@ Central Espanol2–1W
23 Sepvs Colón3–0W
21 Sepvs Racing Montevideo0–0D
14 Sep@ Atletico Torque1–3L
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Penarol – last 6

DWDWDW
10 Octvs Progreso1–1D
4 Oct@ Racing Montevideo1–0W
1 Oct@ Atletico Torque1–1D
26 Sepvs Boston River2–1W
24 Sep@ Danubio1–1D
19 Sep@ Cerro2–1W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

14 Apr 2026Penarol v Liverpool Montevideo0–2
Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol head-to-head page →

Primera División Apertura table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Penarol351997+2465
2Deportivo Maldonado351898+2263
3Atletico Torque3519610+1863
4Club Nacional3519412+1161
5Racing Montevideo3516127+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo3516118+1659
7Wanderers3514912-251
8Albion FC3513814+347
9Juventud35101114-641
10Central Espanol3511816-1341
11Defensor Sporting3591214-839
12Cerro Largo3591016-837
13Boston River3510718-1337
14Cerro3510718-2437
15Progreso3510520-1835
16Danubio3561415-1632

More Primera División Apertura predictions

League hub
FT Albion FC2 Atletico Torque1 133%3.30X23%3.25244%2.10 1.2–1.5xG GGBoth teams to score 56%@1.80 ✓
FT Danubio1 Central Espanol0 157%1.95X25%3.25217%3.70 1.5–0.7xG 1XDanubio or draw 83%@1.25 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.

Who will win Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol?

On our numbers Liverpool Montevideo have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Penarol 47%.

How many goals will there be in Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol?

Our predicted score is Liverpool Montevideo 1–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol?

Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Belvedere.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.