Atletico Nacional 59%Draw 23%Independiente Medellin 17%Expected goals 1.71 – 0.79
83%
Betarazi pick
Atletico Nacional or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Nacional to win ✓59% · @1.75
Double chanceAtletico Nacional or draw ✓83% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.55
Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:30 WAT, Thursday 15 October: Atletico Nacional v Independiente Medellin in the Copa Colombia, played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Current form
Atletico Nacional, last 5: DWDDL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Deportes Tolima, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Independiente Medellin, last 5: WLDLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over America de Cali, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (12 Apr 2026) it ended Independiente Medellin 2–3 Atletico Nacional.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Nacional 1.7 xG, Independiente Medellin 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Nacional 59%, draw 23%, Independiente Medellin 17%.
Lower-risk option: Atletico Nacional or draw (83%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.73.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Atletico Nacional or draw (83%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Nacional 1–0 Independiente Medellin. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico Nacional59%fair 1.68 · @1.75
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.40
Independiente Medellin17%fair 5.80 · @4.00
2.50Expected goals
1.71Atletico Nacional xG
0.79Independiente Medellin xG
54%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Atletico Nacional 1.7 – 0.8 Independiente Medellin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?
Our pick is Atletico Nacional or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?
On our numbers Atletico Nacional have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Independiente Medellin 17%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?
Our predicted score is Atletico Nacional 1–0 Independiente Medellin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?
Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin (Copa Colombia) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
