Progreso vs Defensor Sporting: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:00 WAT, Sunday 1 November: Progreso v Defensor Sporting in the Primera División Apertura, played at Parque Abraham Paladino. In the table, Progreso are 7th, upper half, on 19 points after 13 matches; Defensor Sporting are 13th (lower half) with 12.
Current form
Progreso, last 5: WWDLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Wanderers, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Defensor Sporting, last 5: DLLLL Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Racing Montevideo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Progreso, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.7 for Defensor Sporting.
Head to head
When they last met (27 Apr 2026) it ended Defensor Sporting 1–0 Progreso.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Progreso 1.1 xG, Defensor Sporting 1.1 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Progreso 39%, draw 24%, Defensor Sporting 37%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (56%, odds 1.80). Most likely score in line with that pick: Progreso 1–1 Defensor Sporting. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Progreso39%fair 2.58 · @2.62
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @3.00
Defensor Sporting37%fair 2.69 · @2.62
2.26Expected goals
1.15Progreso xG
1.11Defensor Sporting xG
56%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–112%
0–010%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Progreso 1.1 – 1.1 Defensor Sporting expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?
On our numbers Progreso have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Defensor Sporting 37%.
How many goals will there be in Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?
Our predicted score is Progreso 1–1 Defensor Sporting, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Abraham Paladino.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
