Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.79 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultJoinville to win ✗40% · @2.28
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.79
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.77
Joinville vs Hercílio Luz: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 7 November the Copa Santa Catarina brings Joinville against Hercílio Luz. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT.
Current form
Joinville, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Metropolitano, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Hercílio Luz, last 5: WDWLW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Santa Catarina, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (12 Sep 2026) it ended Joinville 1–3 Hercílio Luz.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Joinville 1.5 xG, Hercílio Luz 1.4 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 61%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Joinville 40%, draw 22%, Hercílio Luz 38%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.79.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.79 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Joinville 1–1 Hercílio Luz. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Joinville40%fair 2.49 · @2.28
Draw22%fair 4.65 · @3.30
Hercílio Luz38%fair 2.61 · @2.63
2.88Expected goals
1.46Joinville xG
1.42Hercílio Luz xG
61%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
2–18%
1–28%
1–08%
0–18%
2–26%
From our goals model: Joinville 1.5 – 1.4 Hercílio Luz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Joinville vs Hercílio Luz?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Joinville vs Hercílio Luz?
On our numbers Joinville have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Hercílio Luz 38%.
How many goals will there be in Joinville vs Hercílio Luz?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Joinville vs Hercílio Luz?
Our predicted score is Joinville 1–1 Hercílio Luz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Joinville vs Hercílio Luz?
Joinville vs Hercílio Luz (Copa Santa Catarina) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
