Value bet: Atletico Nacional to win @ 3.02 – our chance 40% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Nacional to win ✗40% · @3.02
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.79
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.00
Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Once Caldas welcome Atletico Nacional to Estadio Palogrande for a Copa Colombia fixture on Wednesday 11 November (02:30 WAT).
Current form
Once Caldas, last 5: WWWDD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Águilas Doradas, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Atletico Nacional, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 4–3 win over Deportivo Pereira, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Head to head
When they last met (2 May 2026) it ended Once Caldas 1–0 Atletico Nacional.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Once Caldas 1.2 xG, Atletico Nacional 1.3 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Once Caldas 36%, draw 25%, Atletico Nacional 40%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.79.
Price worth noting: Atletico Nacional to win @3.02 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.21). Most likely score in line with that pick: Once Caldas 1–1 Atletico Nacional. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Once Caldas36%fair 2.80 · @2.44
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @2.90
Atletico Nacional40%fair 2.53 · @3.02
2.54Expected goals
1.23Once Caldas xG
1.31Atletico Nacional xG
59%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
0–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Once Caldas 1.2 – 1.3 Atletico Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.21.
Who will win Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?
On our numbers Once Caldas have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Atletico Nacional 40%.
How many goals will there be in Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?
Our predicted score is Once Caldas 1–1 Atletico Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?
Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional (Copa Colombia) kicks off on Wednesday 11 November 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Palogrande.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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