Cerro Largo 47%Draw 29%Progreso 24%Expected goals 1.25 – 0.97
77%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.28
8/10Rating
1.28Odds
Picks by market
ResultCerro Largo to win47% · @1.80
Double chanceCerro Largo or draw76% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score50% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals77% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 12.12
Cerro Largo vs Progreso: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Cerro Largo welcome Progreso to Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla for a Primera División Apertura fixture on Friday 13 November (00:00 WAT). In the table, Cerro Largo are 15th, in the drop zone, on 9 points after 13 matches; Progreso are 7th (upper half) with 19.
Current form
Cerro Largo, last 5: LWLDL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Racing Montevideo, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Progreso, last 5: LWWDL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Defensor Sporting, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Progreso, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.7 for Cerro Largo.
Head to head
When they last met (3 May 2026) it ended Progreso 0–1 Cerro Largo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cerro Largo 1.3 xG, Progreso 1.0 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cerro Largo 47%, draw 29%, Progreso 24%.
Lower-risk option: Cerro Largo or draw (76%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.83.
Betarazi verdict
Our call: Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cerro Largo 1–0 Progreso. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cerro Largo47%fair 2.12 · @1.80
Draw29%fair 3.47 · @3.30
Progreso24%fair 4.18 · @4.10
2.22Expected goals
1.25Cerro Largo xG
0.97Progreso xG
50%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–011%
0–110%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Cerro Largo 1.3 – 1.0 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Cerro Largo
Progreso
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-22%
-10%
Goals conceded vs average
+5%
+2%
Our expected goals here
1.01
1.01
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
On our numbers Cerro Largo have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Progreso 24%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
Our predicted score is Cerro Largo 1–0 Progreso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
Cerro Largo vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
