Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.25
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
Picks by market
ResultLiverpool Montevideo to win53% · @1.80
Double chanceLiverpool Montevideo or draw80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score51% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals79% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–117% · fair 5.94
Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Danubio welcome Liverpool Montevideo for a Primera División Apertura fixture on Sunday 15 November (20:30 WAT). In the table, Danubio are 14th, in the drop zone, on 10 points after 13 matches; Liverpool Montevideo are 1st (leading the league) with 30. There are 20 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Danubio, last 5: LWLWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Club Nacional, at home. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Liverpool Montevideo, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Juventud, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Liverpool Montevideo, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.5 for Danubio.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Danubio 0.7 xG, Liverpool Montevideo 1.4 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Danubio 20%, draw 27%, Liverpool Montevideo 53%.
Lower-risk option: Liverpool Montevideo or draw (80%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.80.
Betarazi verdict
The Betarazi pick is Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Danubio 0–1 Liverpool Montevideo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Danubio20%fair 4.93 · @3.90
Draw27%fair 3.72 · @3.30
Liverpool Montevideo53%fair 1.89 · @1.80
2.12Expected goals
0.72Danubio xG
1.40Liverpool Montevideo xG
49%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–117%
1–112%
0–012%
0–212%
1–09%
1–28%
From our goals model: Danubio 0.7 – 1.4 Liverpool Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Danubio
Liverpool Montevideo
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-33%
+15%
Goals conceded vs average
-1%
-31%
Our expected goals here
0.60
1.22
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Liverpool Montevideo to win
53%
1.89
1.80
Double chance
Liverpool Montevideo or draw
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
51%
1.97
1.80
Draw no bet
Liverpool Montevideo (draw no bet)
72%
1.38
–
Asian handicap
Danubio +1 (Asian handicap)
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
67%
1.50
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
60%
1.67
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
79%
1.26
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
91%
1.10
1.08
First team to score
Liverpool Montevideo to score first
58%
1.72
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Liverpool Montevideo / FT Liverpool Montevideo
32%
3.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
17%
5.94
–
Recent results
Danubio – last 6
LWLWWL
1 Nov
vs Club Nacional
1–2
L
30 Oct
@ Wanderers Durazno
3–0
W
24 Oct
@ Deportivo Maldonado
1–2
L
18 Oct
vs Central Espanol
1–0
W
15 Oct
@ Central Espanol
6–0
W
9 Oct
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Liverpool Montevideo – last 6
DWWWWW
11 Nov
vs Juventud
1–1
D
5 Nov
@ Gladiador
2–0
W
3 Nov
vs Juventud
2–0
W
25 Oct
@ Club Nacional
1–0
W
21 Oct
vs Cerro Largo
1–0
W
18 Oct
vs Penarol
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Danubio and Liverpool Montevideo.
What is the prediction for Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo?
On our numbers Danubio have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Liverpool Montevideo 53%.
How many goals will there be in Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Our predicted score is Danubio 0–1 Liverpool Montevideo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
