Defensor Sporting vs Penarol: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Penarol travel to face Defensor Sporting on Monday 16 November in the Primera División Apertura, with Estadio Luis Franzini the venue – the ball rolls at 00:00 WAT. In the table, Defensor Sporting are 13th, lower half, on 12 points after 13 matches; Penarol are 5th (upper half) with 22.
Current form
Defensor Sporting, last 5: WDLLL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Progreso, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Penarol, last 5: DLDLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Wanderers, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Head to head
When they last met (24 May 2026) it ended Defensor Sporting 0–2 Penarol. The last 2 head-to-heads: Defensor Sporting 0 wins, Penarol 1, draws 1. Those games averaged 2.0 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Defensor Sporting 0.9 xG, Penarol 1.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Defensor Sporting 19%, draw 24%, Penarol 57%.
Lower-risk option: Penarol or draw (81%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.83.
Betarazi verdict
We are going with Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Defensor Sporting 0–1 Penarol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Defensor Sporting19%fair 5.27 · @4.75
Draw24%fair 4.24 · @3.60
Penarol57%fair 1.74 · @1.60
2.52Expected goals
0.86Defensor Sporting xG
1.66Penarol xG
52%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–08%
1–07%
From our goals model: Defensor Sporting 0.9 – 1.7 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-0%
+24%
Goals conceded vs average
+25%
-29%
Our expected goals here
0.90
1.65
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
On our numbers Defensor Sporting have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Penarol 57%.
How many goals will there be in Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Defensor Sporting 0–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
Defensor Sporting vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Monday 16 November 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Franzini.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
