New Mexico United 38%Draw 26%Sacramento Republic 36%Expected goals 1.31 – 1.17
74%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.35 · bookmaker 1.30
8/10Rating
1.30Odds
Picks by market
ResultNew Mexico United to win38% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score55% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 11.88
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 16 November the USL Championship brings New Mexico United against Sacramento Republic at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park. Kick-off: 01:00 WAT. In the table, New Mexico United are 1st, leading the league, on 52 points after 30 matches; Sacramento Republic are 2nd (among the top four) with 51. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
New Mexico United, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Colorado Springs, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Sacramento Republic, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over El Paso Locomotive, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (27 Sep 2026) it ended New Mexico United 2–3 Sacramento Republic. The last 2 head-to-heads: New Mexico United 1 win, Sacramento Republic 1, draws 0. Those games averaged 3.0 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give New Mexico United 1.3 xG, Sacramento Republic 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – New Mexico United 38%, draw 26%, Sacramento Republic 36%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.80.
Betarazi verdict
Our call: Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: New Mexico United 1–1 Sacramento Republic. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
New Mexico United38%fair 2.65 · @2.70
Draw26%fair 3.87 · @3.30
Sacramento Republic36%fair 2.74 · @2.30
2.48Expected goals
1.31New Mexico United xG
1.17Sacramento Republic xG
55%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: New Mexico United 1.3 – 1.2 Sacramento Republic expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
New Mexico United
Sacramento Republic
Attack vs USL Championship average
+23%
+11%
Goals conceded vs average
-22%
-27%
Our expected goals here
1.36
1.05
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
On our numbers New Mexico United have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Sacramento Republic 36%.
How many goals will there be in New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
Our predicted score is New Mexico United 1–1 Sacramento Republic, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic (USL Championship) kicks off on Monday 16 November 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
