Malta 36%Draw 28%Luxembourg 37%Expected goals 1.08 – 0.98
65%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
1
Value bet: Malta to win @ 3.45 – our chance 36% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLuxembourg to win ✓37% · @2.24
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 15.11
Malta vs Luxembourg: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 26 March the UEFA Nations League brings Malta against Luxembourg at Ta'Qali National Stadium. Kick-off: 18:00 WAT. In the table, Malta are 1st on 7 points after 3 matches; Luxembourg are 4th with 3.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Malta 1.1 xG, Luxembourg 1.0 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Malta 36%, draw 28%, Luxembourg 37%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Malta to win @3.45 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Malta 1–0 Luxembourg. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Malta36%fair 2.81 · @3.45
Draw28%fair 3.59 · @2.98
Luxembourg37%fair 2.73 · @2.24
2.06Expected goals
1.08Malta xG
0.98Luxembourg xG
52%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–013%
0–113%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Malta 1.1 – 1.0 Luxembourg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Malta
Luxembourg
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average
-2%
-14%
Goals conceded vs average
+2%
+17%
Our expected goals here
1.40
1.08
Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Luxembourg to win✓
37%
2.73
2.24
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.39
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
2.15 ▲
Draw no bet
Luxembourg (draw no bet)✓
51%
1.97
–
Asian handicap
Luxembourg +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.15
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
1.04
First team to score
Malta to score first✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
21%
4.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
15.11
–
Recent results
Malta
No recent results on record.
Luxembourg
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Malta and Luxembourg.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Malta vs Luxembourg?
On our numbers Malta have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Luxembourg 37%.
How many goals will there be in Malta vs Luxembourg?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Malta vs Luxembourg?
Our predicted score is Malta 1–0 Luxembourg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Malta vs Luxembourg?
Malta vs Luxembourg (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Thursday 26 March 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Ta'Qali National Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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