Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 52% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLuxembourg to win ✓49% · @1.64
Double chanceLuxembourg or draw ✓75% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.87
Luxembourg vs Malta: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:00 WAT, Tuesday 31 March: Luxembourg v Malta in the UEFA Nations League, played at Stade de Luxembourg. In the table, Luxembourg are 4th on 3 points after 4 matches; Malta are 1st with 7.
Head to head
When they last met (26 Mar 2026) it ended Malta 0–2 Luxembourg.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Luxembourg 1.2 xG, Malta 1.0 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 61%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Luxembourg 49%, draw 26%, Malta 25%.
Lower-risk option: Luxembourg or draw (75%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Luxembourg 1–0 Malta. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Luxembourg49%fair 2.04 · @1.64
Draw26%fair 3.80 · @3.55
Malta25%fair 4.05 · @5.60
2.15Expected goals
1.16Luxembourg xG
0.99Malta xG
52%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–112%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Luxembourg 1.2 – 1.0 Malta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Luxembourg
Malta
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average
-14%
-2%
Goals conceded vs average
+17%
+2%
Our expected goals here
1.07
1.41
Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Luxembourg vs Malta?
On our numbers Luxembourg have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Malta 25%.
How many goals will there be in Luxembourg vs Malta?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Luxembourg vs Malta?
Our predicted score is Luxembourg 1–0 Malta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Luxembourg vs Malta?
Luxembourg vs Malta (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Tuesday 31 March 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade de Luxembourg.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Latvia1
Gibraltar0