Sweden U21 20%Draw 22%Italy U21 58%Expected goals 1.25 – 2.14
80%
Betarazi pick
Italy U21 or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultItaly U21 to win ✓58% · @1.68
Double chanceItaly U21 or draw ✓80% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.36
Sweden U21 vs Italy U21: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 31 March the UEFA U21 Championship Qualification brings Sweden U21 against Italy U21 at Boras Arena. Kick-off: 17:30 WAT. In the table, Sweden U21 are 3rd on 18 points after 10 matches; Italy U21 are 1st with 24.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sweden U21 1.2 xG, Italy U21 2.1 xG – a total near 3.4. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 62% and GG at 62%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sweden U21 20%, draw 22%, Italy U21 58%.
Lower-risk option: Italy U21 or draw (80%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.57.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Italy U21 or draw (80%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sweden U21 1–2 Italy U21. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sweden U2120%fair 4.96 · @4.20
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.80
Italy U2158%fair 1.73 · @1.68
3.38Expected goals
1.25Sweden U21 xG
2.14Italy U21 xG
62%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–210%
1–19%
0–28%
0–17%
1–37%
2–26%
From our goals model: Sweden U21 1.2 – 2.1 Italy U21 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Sweden U21
Italy U21
Attack vs UEFA U21 Championship Qualification average
-15%
+41%
Goals conceded vs average
+3%
-16%
Our expected goals here
1.32
2.16
Our own ratings from every UEFA U21 Championship Qualification result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Italy U21 to win✓
58%
1.73
1.68
Double chance
Italy U21 or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.62
1.57
Draw no bet
Italy U21 (draw no bet)✓
74%
1.35
–
Asian handicap
Sweden U21 +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
60%
1.68
1.48
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
First team to score
Italy U21 to score first✓
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
Italy U21 ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Italy U21 / FT Italy U21✓
37%
2.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.36
–
Recent results
Sweden U21 – last 1
D
27 Mar
vs Montenegro U21
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Italy U21 – last 1
W
26 Mar
vs North Macedonia U21
4–0
W
4.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sweden U21 and Italy U21.
What is the prediction for Sweden U21 vs Italy U21?
Our pick is Italy U21 or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Sweden U21 vs Italy U21?
On our numbers Sweden U21 have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Italy U21 58%.
How many goals will there be in Sweden U21 vs Italy U21?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sweden U21 vs Italy U21?
Our predicted score is Sweden U21 1–2 Italy U21, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Sweden U21 vs Italy U21?
Sweden U21 vs Italy U21 (UEFA U21 Championship Qualification) kicks off on Tuesday 31 March 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Boras Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Latvia U211
Northern Ireland U213
Poland U211
Slovenia U212
Norway U210
Armenia U210
North Macedonia U212
Hungary U211
Ukraine U212
Finland U213
Cyprus U210
Czech Republic U215
Gibraltar U210
Kazakhstan U210