AS Roma 64%Draw 20%Fiorentina 17%Expected goals 2.16 – 1.04
78%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.28Odds
Picks by market
ResultAS Roma to win ✓64% · @1.57
Double chanceAS Roma or draw ✓83% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.90
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.12
AS Roma vs Fiorentina: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 4 May the Serie A brings AS Roma against Fiorentina at Stadio Olimpico. Kick-off: 19:45 WAT. In the table, AS Roma are 3rd, among the top four, on 27 points after 11 matches; Fiorentina are 15th (lower half) with 9. There are 18 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
AS Roma, last 5: WLDLD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Pisa, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Fiorentina, last 5: DDWWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Sassuolo, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Fiorentina, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for AS Roma.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AS Roma 2.2 xG, Fiorentina 1.0 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 56% and GG at 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AS Roma 64%, draw 20%, Fiorentina 17%.
Lower-risk option: AS Roma or draw (83%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.90.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: AS Roma 2–1 Fiorentina. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AS Roma64%fair 1.57 · @1.57
Draw20%fair 5.09 · @3.90
Fiorentina17%fair 5.99 · @5.60
3.20Expected goals
2.16AS Roma xG
1.04Fiorentina xG
53%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–010%
1–19%
1–09%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: AS Roma 2.2 – 1.0 Fiorentina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AS Roma to win✓
64%
1.57
1.57
Double chance
AS Roma or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.90
Draw no bet
AS Roma (draw no bet)✓
79%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
AS Roma -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.77
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.53
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.11
First team to score
AS Roma to score first✓
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
AS Roma ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AS Roma / FT AS Roma✓
41%
2.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.12
–
Recent results
AS Roma – last 6
WLDLDL
10 Apr
vs Pisa
3–0
W
5 Apr
@ Inter
2–5
L
19 Mar
vs Bologna
3–3
D
15 Mar
@ Como
1–2
L
12 Mar
@ Bologna
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Genoa
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Fiorentina – last 6
DDWWLW
26 Apr
vs Sassuolo
0–0
D
20 Apr
@ Lecce
1–1
D
16 Apr
vs Crystal Palace
2–1
W
13 Apr
vs Lazio
1–0
W
9 Apr
@ Crystal Palace
0–3
L
19 Mar
@ Raków Częstochowa
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AS Roma and Fiorentina.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
On our numbers AS Roma have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Fiorentina 17%.
How many goals will there be in AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
Our predicted score is AS Roma 2–1 Fiorentina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
AS Roma vs Fiorentina (Serie A) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Olimpico.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Cremonese1