Newcastle vs Sunderland: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 22 March the Premier League brings Newcastle against Sunderland at St. James' Park. Kick-off: 13:00 WAT. In the table, Newcastle are 12th, lower half, on 12 points after 10 matches; Sunderland are 19th (in the drop zone) with 8.
Current form
Newcastle, last 5: LDWWW Their latest outing: 2–7 defeat to Barcelona, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.8 a game lately.
Sunderland, last 5: LWDLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Port Vale, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Newcastle, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.4 for Sunderland.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Newcastle 1.5 xG, Sunderland 1.1 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Newcastle 52%, draw 24%, Sunderland 23%.
Lower-risk option: Newcastle or draw (77%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Newcastle 1–1 Sunderland. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Newcastle52%fair 1.92 · @1.67
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.70
Sunderland23%fair 4.26 · @5.00
2.63Expected goals
1.49Newcastle xG
1.14Sunderland xG
55%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Newcastle 1.5 – 1.1 Sunderland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Newcastle to win✗
52%
1.92
1.67
Double chance
Newcastle or draw✗
77%
1.31
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.80
Draw no bet
Newcastle (draw no bet)✗
69%
1.45
–
Asian handicap
Sunderland +1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
1.12
First team to score
Newcastle to score first✓
53%
1.90
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Newcastle / FT Newcastle✗
27%
3.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.96
–
Recent results
Newcastle – last 5
LDWWW
18 Mar
@ Barcelona
2–7
L
10 Mar
vs Barcelona
1–1
D
4 Mar
vs Manchester United
2–1
W
24 Feb
vs Qarabag
3–2
W
18 Feb
@ Qarabag
6–1
W
2.8Scored / game
2.4Conceded / game
100%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Sunderland – last 5
LWDLW
8 Mar
@ Port Vale
0–1
L
3 Mar
@ Leeds
1–0
W
28 Feb
@ Bournemouth
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Fulham
1–3
L
15 Feb
@ Oxford United
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newcastle and Sunderland.
What is the prediction for Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Newcastle vs Sunderland?
On our numbers Newcastle have a 52% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sunderland 23%.
How many goals will there be in Newcastle vs Sunderland?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Our predicted score is Newcastle 1–1 Sunderland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Newcastle vs Sunderland (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at St. James' Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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