Bournemouth vs Leeds: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Leeds travel to face Bournemouth on Wednesday 22 April in the Premier League, with Vitality Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT. In the table, Bournemouth are 7th, upper half, on 15 points after 10 matches; Leeds are 9th (upper half) with 14. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Bournemouth, last 3: DDD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Manchester United, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Leeds, last 5: WDWLD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Manchester United, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.6 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Leeds, collecting 1.6 points per game to 1.0 for Bournemouth.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bournemouth 1.7 xG, Leeds 1.1 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bournemouth 50%, draw 24%, Leeds 26%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bournemouth 1–1 Leeds. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bournemouth50%fair 2.02 · @1.99
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.55
Leeds26%fair 3.78 · @3.50
2.80Expected goals
1.73Bournemouth xG
1.07Leeds xG
59%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–09%
0–17%
0–06%
From our goals model: Bournemouth 1.7 – 1.1 Leeds expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bournemouth to win✗
50%
2.02
1.99
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.62
Draw no bet
Bournemouth (draw no bet)
65%
1.53
–
Asian handicap
Leeds +1 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.17
First team to score
Bournemouth to score first
58%
1.73
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bournemouth / FT Bournemouth✗
32%
3.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.27
–
Recent results
Bournemouth – last 3
DDD
20 Mar
vs Manchester United
2–2
D
3 Mar
vs Brentford
0–0
D
28 Feb
vs Sunderland
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Leeds – last 5
WDWLD
13 Apr
@ Manchester United
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Crystal Palace
0–0
D
8 Mar
vs Norwich
3–0
W
3 Mar
vs Sunderland
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Aston Villa
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bournemouth and Leeds.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Bournemouth vs Leeds?
On our numbers Bournemouth have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Leeds 26%.
How many goals will there be in Bournemouth vs Leeds?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bournemouth vs Leeds?
Our predicted score is Bournemouth 1–1 Leeds, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Bournemouth vs Leeds?
Bournemouth vs Leeds (Premier League) kicks off on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Vitality Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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