Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultManchester City to win ✓74% · @1.15
Double chanceManchester City or draw ✓90% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.95
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗70% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.87
Burnley vs Manchester City: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Manchester City travel to face Burnley on Wednesday 22 April in the Premier League, with Turf Moor the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT.
Current form
Burnley, last 3: LLD Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Nottingham Forest, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Manchester City, last 5: WWLLD Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Liverpool, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.4 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Manchester City, collecting 1.4 points per game to 0.3 for Burnley.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Burnley 1.0 xG, Manchester City 2.6 xG – a total near 3.6. That is an open game on paper: 70% for three or more goals, 60% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Burnley 10%, draw 15%, Manchester City 74%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (70%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Burnley 1–2 Manchester City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Burnley10%fair 9.68 · @15.50
Draw15%fair 6.48 · @7.40
Manchester City74%fair 1.35 · @1.15
3.57Expected goals
0.96Burnley xG
2.61Manchester City xG
60%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–210%
1–29%
0–38%
1–38%
0–17%
1–17%
From our goals model: Burnley 1.0 – 2.6 Manchester City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Manchester City to win✓
74%
1.35
1.15
Double chance
Manchester City or draw✓
90%
1.12
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Manchester City (draw no bet)✓
88%
1.14
–
Asian handicap
Manchester City -1 (Asian handicap)
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
87%
1.15
1.09
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.33
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
1.95
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.40
First team to score
Manchester City to score first✓
71%
1.41
–
Half-time result
Manchester City ahead at half-time✓
54%
1.85
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Manchester City / FT Manchester City✓
50%
2.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.87
–
Recent results
Burnley – last 3
LLD
19 Apr
@ Nottingham Forest
1–4
L
3 Mar
@ Everton
0–2
L
21 Feb
@ Chelsea
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Manchester City – last 5
WWLLD
4 Apr
vs Liverpool
4–0
W
22 Mar
@ Arsenal
2–0
W
17 Mar
vs Real Madrid
1–2
L
11 Mar
@ Real Madrid
0–3
L
4 Mar
vs Nottingham Forest
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Burnley and Manchester City.
What is the prediction for Burnley vs Manchester City?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Burnley vs Manchester City?
On our numbers Burnley have a 10% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Manchester City 74%.
How many goals will there be in Burnley vs Manchester City?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Manchester City?
Our predicted score is Burnley 1–2 Manchester City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Burnley vs Manchester City?
Burnley vs Manchester City (Premier League) kicks off on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Turf Moor.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
