Bournemouth 32%Draw 23%Manchester City 46%Expected goals 1.68 – 1.62
65%
Betarazi pick
Over 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.45 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
1
Value bet: Bournemouth to win @ 4.20 – our chance 32% vs 24% implied by the price (edge +34%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultManchester City to win ✗46% · @1.71
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.45
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.28
Bournemouth vs Manchester City: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 19 May the Premier League brings Bournemouth against Manchester City at Vitality Stadium. Kick-off: 19:30 WAT. In the table, Bournemouth are 7th, upper half, on 15 points after 10 matches; Manchester City are 3rd (among the top four) with 21.
Current form
Bournemouth, last 5: WDDDD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Crystal Palace, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.6 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Manchester City, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Crystal Palace, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Manchester City, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.4 for Bournemouth.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bournemouth 1.7 xG, Manchester City 1.6 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 65% for three or more goals, 64% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bournemouth 32%, draw 23%, Manchester City 46%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.45.
Price worth noting: Bournemouth to win @4.20 – the bookmaker implies 24%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bournemouth 2–1 Manchester City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bournemouth32%fair 3.14 · @4.20
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @4.10
Manchester City46%fair 2.19 · @1.71
3.30Expected goals
1.68Bournemouth xG
1.62Manchester City xG
64%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–18%
1–28%
2–27%
1–06%
0–16%
From our goals model: Bournemouth 1.7 – 1.6 Manchester City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Manchester City to win✗
46%
2.19
1.71
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.56
1.45
Draw no bet
Manchester City (draw no bet)
59%
1.70
–
Asian handicap
Manchester City +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
1.70
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.30
First team to score
Bournemouth to score first✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
37%
2.67
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bournemouth / FT Bournemouth✗
24%
4.22
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.28
–
Recent results
Bournemouth – last 5
WDDDD
3 May
vs Crystal Palace
3–0
W
22 Apr
vs Leeds
2–2
D
20 Mar
vs Manchester United
2–2
D
3 Mar
vs Brentford
0–0
D
28 Feb
vs Sunderland
1–1
D
1.6Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Manchester City – last 6
WDWWWL
13 May
vs Crystal Palace
3–0
W
4 May
@ Everton
3–3
D
22 Apr
@ Burnley
1–0
W
4 Apr
vs Liverpool
4–0
W
22 Mar
@ Arsenal
2–0
W
17 Mar
vs Real Madrid
1–2
L
2.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bournemouth and Manchester City.
What is the prediction for Bournemouth vs Manchester City?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Bournemouth vs Manchester City?
On our numbers Bournemouth have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Manchester City 46%.
How many goals will there be in Bournemouth vs Manchester City?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bournemouth vs Manchester City?
Our predicted score is Bournemouth 2–1 Manchester City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Bournemouth vs Manchester City?
Bournemouth vs Manchester City (Premier League) kicks off on Tuesday 19 May 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Vitality Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
