AZ Alkmaar 60%Draw 22%Sparta Rotterdam 18%Expected goals 2.29 – 1.08
82%
Betarazi pick
AZ Alkmaar or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: AZ Alkmaar to win @ 1.90 – our chance 60% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAZ Alkmaar to win ✓60% · @1.90
Double chanceAZ Alkmaar or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.27
AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:45 WAT, Sunday 22 February: AZ Alkmaar v Sparta Rotterdam in the Eredivisie, played at AFAS Stadion. In the table, AZ Alkmaar are 5th, upper half, on 23 points after 12 matches; Sparta Rotterdam are 12th (lower half) with 12.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AZ Alkmaar 2.3 xG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.1 xG – a total near 3.4. That is an open game on paper: 63% for three or more goals, 65% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AZ Alkmaar 60%, draw 22%, Sparta Rotterdam 18%.
Lower-risk option: AZ Alkmaar or draw (82%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.50.
Price worth noting: AZ Alkmaar to win @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was AZ Alkmaar or draw (82%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.21, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AZ Alkmaar60%fair 1.66 · @1.90
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.65
Sparta Rotterdam18%fair 5.69 · @3.70
3.37Expected goals
2.29AZ Alkmaar xG
1.08Sparta Rotterdam xG
65%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–09%
1–19%
1–08%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: AZ Alkmaar 2.3 – 1.1 Sparta Rotterdam expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AZ Alkmaar to win✓
60%
1.66
1.90 ▲
Double chance
AZ Alkmaar or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.54
1.50
Draw no bet
AZ Alkmaar (draw no bet)✓
77%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
AZ Alkmaar -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
59%
1.71
1.55
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.22
First team to score
AZ Alkmaar to score first
66%
1.53
–
Half-time result
AZ Alkmaar ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AZ Alkmaar / FT AZ Alkmaar✗
42%
2.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.27
–
Recent results
AZ Alkmaar – last 1
L
19 Feb
@ FC Noah
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Sparta Rotterdam – last 1
D
17 Feb
vs NEC Nijmegen
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam.
What is the prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our pick is AZ Alkmaar or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
On our numbers AZ Alkmaar have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sparta Rotterdam 18%.
How many goals will there be in AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our predicted score is AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:45 (West Africa Time) at AFAS Stadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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