AZ Alkmaar 60%Draw 21%Heracles 19%Expected goals 2.14 – 1.29
63%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.73Odds
Picks by market
ResultAZ Alkmaar to win ✓60% · @1.40
Double chanceAZ Alkmaar or draw ✓81% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.73
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓67% · fair 1.50
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.46
AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Heracles travel to face AZ Alkmaar on Sunday 15 March in the Eredivisie, with AFAS Stadion the venue – the ball rolls at 14:30 WAT.
Current form
AZ Alkmaar, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Sparta Praha, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AZ Alkmaar 2.1 xG, Heracles 1.3 xG – a total near 3.4. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 67% and GG at 63%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AZ Alkmaar 60%, draw 21%, Heracles 19%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.73.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (63%, odds 1.73 – longer than our fair 1.59, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Heracles. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AZ Alkmaar60%fair 1.66 · @1.40
Draw21%fair 4.72 · @4.60
Heracles19%fair 5.34 · @6.50
3.44Expected goals
2.14AZ Alkmaar xG
1.29Heracles xG
63%Both score
67%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–19%
2–07%
1–07%
3–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: AZ Alkmaar 2.1 – 1.3 Heracles expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AZ Alkmaar to win✓
60%
1.66
1.40
Double chance
AZ Alkmaar or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
63%
1.59
1.73 ▲
Draw no bet
AZ Alkmaar (draw no bet)✓
76%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Heracles +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
–
First team to score
AZ Alkmaar to score first✓
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
AZ Alkmaar ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AZ Alkmaar / FT AZ Alkmaar✓
36%
2.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.46
–
Recent results
AZ Alkmaar – last 6
WWLWWL
12 Mar
vs Sparta Praha
2–1
W
4 Mar
vs Telstar
2–1
W
1 Mar
@ Utrecht
0–2
L
26 Feb
vs FC Noah
4–0
W
22 Feb
vs Sparta Rotterdam
3–1
W
19 Feb
@ FC Noah
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Heracles – last 2
DL
6 Mar
vs Utrecht
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ GO Ahead Eagles
0–4
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AZ Alkmaar and Heracles.
What is the prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
On our numbers AZ Alkmaar have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Heracles 19%.
How many goals will there be in AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
Our predicted score is AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Heracles, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at AFAS Stadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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