Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Excelsior to win @ 3.05 – our chance 37% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultUtrecht to win ✗40% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.52
Excelsior vs Utrecht: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Utrecht travel to face Excelsior on Sunday 26 April in the Eredivisie, with Stadion Woudestein the venue – the ball rolls at 11:15 WAT. In the table, Excelsior are 15th, lower half, on 11 points after 12 matches; Utrecht are 14th (lower half) with 12. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Excelsior, last 4: DDLL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with PEC Zwolle, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Utrecht, last 5: WWDWD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over GO Ahead Eagles, at home. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 0.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Utrecht, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.5 for Excelsior.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Excelsior 1.7 xG, Utrecht 1.5 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 57% and GG at 63%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Excelsior 37%, draw 23%, Utrecht 40%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Excelsior to win @3.05 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Excelsior 1–1 Utrecht. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Excelsior37%fair 2.71 · @3.05
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.55
Utrecht40%fair 2.48 · @2.18
3.18Expected goals
1.66Excelsior xG
1.52Utrecht xG
63%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
2–27%
0–16%
From our goals model: Excelsior 1.7 – 1.5 Utrecht expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Utrecht to win✗
40%
2.48
2.18
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
63%
1.58
1.62
Draw no bet
Utrecht (draw no bet)✗
52%
1.91
–
Asian handicap
Utrecht +1 (Asian handicap)✗
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
81%
1.23
1.13
First team to score
Excelsior to score first✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
38%
2.61
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Excelsior / FT Excelsior✓
25%
4.06
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.52
–
Recent results
Excelsior – last 4
DDLL
12 Apr
@ PEC Zwolle
2–2
D
20 Mar
@ Heracles
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Feyenoord
1–2
L
20 Feb
@ Fortuna Sittard
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
100%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Utrecht – last 5
WWDWD
22 Mar
vs GO Ahead Eagles
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Twente
2–0
W
6 Mar
@ Heracles
0–0
D
1 Mar
vs AZ Alkmaar
2–0
W
22 Feb
vs PEC Zwolle
1–1
D
1.4Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
20%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Excelsior and Utrecht.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Excelsior vs Utrecht?
On our numbers Excelsior have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Utrecht 40%.
How many goals will there be in Excelsior vs Utrecht?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Excelsior vs Utrecht?
Our predicted score is Excelsior 1–1 Utrecht, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Excelsior vs Utrecht?
Excelsior vs Utrecht (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 11:15 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Woudestein.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Heracles0
FC Volendam2