AZ Alkmaar v Twente Prediction & Expected Goals (3 May) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultTwente to win41% · @2.26

Double chanceEither team to win77% · @1.20

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score68% · @1.38

GoalsOver 1.5 goals83% · @1.13

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 11.38

AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

15:45 WAT, Sunday 3 May: AZ Alkmaar v Twente in the Eredivisie, played at AFAS Stadion. In the table, AZ Alkmaar are 5th, upper half, on 23 points after 12 matches; Twente are 4th (among the top four) with 24. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

AZ Alkmaar, last 5: DDLLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with GO Ahead Eagles, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Twente, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over FC Volendam, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Twente, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.3 for AZ Alkmaar.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give AZ Alkmaar 1.5 xG, Twente 1.7 xG – a total near 3.2. That is an open game on paper: 63% for three or more goals, 68% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – AZ Alkmaar 36%, draw 23%, Twente 41%.
GG/NG: GG (68%) at 1.38.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (68%, odds 1.38). Most likely score in line with that pick: AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Twente. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

AZ Alkmaar36%fair 2.77 · @2.68

Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.90

Twente41%fair 2.42 · @2.26

3.17Expected goals

1.50AZ Alkmaar xG

1.67Twente xG

68%Both score

63%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–111%

1–29%

2–18%

0–17%

2–27%

1–06%

From our goals model: AZ Alkmaar 1.5 – 1.7 Twente expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Twente to win	41%	2.42	2.26
Double chance	Either team to win	77%	1.29	1.20
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	68%	1.48	1.38
Draw no bet	Twente (draw no bet)	53%	1.88	–
Asian handicap	AZ Alkmaar +1 (Asian handicap)	73%	1.37	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	83%	1.20	1.13
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals	63%	1.58	1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	58%	1.72	1.70
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals	76%	1.32	1.30
First team to score	Twente to score first	50%	1.98	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time	38%	2.61	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Twente / FT Twente	25%	3.98	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2	9%	11.38	–

AZ Alkmaar – last 6

DDLLWW

23 Apr	@ GO Ahead Eagles	0–0	D
16 Apr	vs Shakhtar Donetsk	2–2	D
9 Apr	@ Shakhtar Donetsk	0–3	L
22 Mar	@ Groningen	0–3	L
19 Mar	@ Sparta Praha	4–0	W
15 Mar	vs Heracles	4–0	W

1.7Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

17%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Twente – last 6

WLWWWD

10 Apr	vs FC Volendam	2–1	W
15 Mar	vs Utrecht	0–2	L
8 Mar	@ GO Ahead Eagles	4–1	W
1 Mar	vs Feyenoord	2–0	W
22 Feb	vs Groningen	2–1	W
15 Feb	@ Telstar	1–1	D

1.8Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

67%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	8	2	2	+25	26
2	Feyenoord	12	7	4	1	+19	25
3	Ajax	12	7	4	1	+17	25
4	Twente	12	7	3	2	+18	24
5	AZ Alkmaar	12	7	2	3	+8	23
6	Heerenveen	12	6	3	3	+8	21
7	Fortuna Sittard	12	5	5	2	0	20
8	GO Ahead Eagles	12	4	5	3	-3	17
9	Groningen	12	4	3	5	+1	15
10	Cambuur	12	4	3	5	-2	15
11	NEC Nijmegen	12	3	5	4	-1	14
12	Sparta Rotterdam	12	3	3	6	-8	12
13	PEC Zwolle	12	3	3	6	-11	12
14	Utrecht	12	3	3	6	-13	12
15	Excelsior	12	3	2	7	-13	11
16	Telstar	12	2	4	6	-7	10
17	ADO Den Haag	12	2	3	7	-9	9
18	Willem II	12	0	3	9	-29	3

Team

Pts

+25

+19

+17

+18

-3

-2

-1

-8

-11

-13

-13

-7

-9

-29

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.

Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?

On our numbers AZ Alkmaar have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Twente 41%.

How many goals will there be in AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?

We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?

Our predicted score is AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Twente, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.

When is AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?

AZ Alkmaar vs Twente (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time) at AFAS Stadion.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

AZ Alkmaar v Twente: numbers & prediction