Stal Mielec v Polonia Bytom Prediction & Expected Goals (24 May) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultPolonia Bytom to win ✗40% · @2.50

Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.20

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.44

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.88

Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

15:30 WAT, Sunday 24 May: Stal Mielec v Polonia Bytom in the I Liga, played at Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu. In the table, Stal Mielec are 11th, lower half, on 19 points after 14 matches; Polonia Bytom are 3rd (among the top four) with 24.

Current form

Stal Mielec, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Chrobry Głogów, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Polonia Bytom, last 5: LWLDL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Slask Wroclaw, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Stal Mielec, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.8 for Polonia Bytom.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Stal Mielec 1.6 xG, Polonia Bytom 1.6 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 62% for three or more goals, 64% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Stal Mielec 38%, draw 23%, Polonia Bytom 40%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.44.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (64%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Stal Mielec 1–1 Polonia Bytom. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Stal Mielec38%fair 2.65 · @2.35

Draw23%fair 4.40 · @3.65

Polonia Bytom40%fair 2.53 · @2.50

3.25Expected goals

1.61Stal Mielec xG

1.65Polonia Bytom xG

64%Both score

62%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–110%

1–28%

2–18%

2–27%

0–16%

1–06%

From our goals model: Stal Mielec 1.6 – 1.6 Polonia Bytom expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Polonia Bytom to win ✗	40%	2.53	2.50
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	77%	1.29	1.20
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	64%	1.57	1.44
Draw no bet	Polonia Bytom (draw no bet) ✗	51%	1.95	–
Asian handicap	Stal Mielec +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	61%	1.65	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	84%	1.20	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	62%	1.61	1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	60%	1.68	1.55
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✗	77%	1.30	1.22
First team to score	Polonia Bytom to score first ✗	49%	2.05	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	38%	2.65	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Polonia Bytom / FT Polonia Bytom ✗	23%	4.27	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	8%	11.88	–

Stal Mielec – last 6

LWWWWL

17 Apr	@ Chrobry Głogów	1–2	L
6 Apr	@ Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	2–1	W
22 Mar	vs Wieczysta Kraków	3–1	W
6 Mar	vs Tychy 71	4–0	W
1 Mar	@ Odra Opole	2–0	W
23 Feb	vs ŁKS Łódź	1–2	L

2.2Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

67%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Polonia Bytom – last 6

LWLDLD

17 May	vs Slask Wroclaw	1–3	L
4 May	vs Polonia Warszawa	3–2	W
23 Apr	@ Wieczysta Kraków	3–4	L
7 Apr	@ Miedz Legnica	1–1	D
8 Mar	vs Ruch Chorzów	0–1	L
22 Feb	vs Pogoń Siedlce	1–1	D

1.5Scored / game

2.0Conceded / game

83%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Polonia Warszawa	14	7	4	3	+8	25
2	ŁKS Łódź	14	7	4	3	+5	25
3	Polonia Bytom	14	6	6	2	+4	24
4	Lechia Gdansk	14	7	1	6	+3	22
5	Ruch Chorzów	14	6	4	4	+3	22
6	Nieciecza	14	6	4	4	+2	22
7	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	14	6	3	5	+6	21
8	Miedz Legnica	14	5	5	4	+7	20
9	Warta Poznań	14	6	1	7	0	19
10	Pogoń Siedlce	14	5	4	5	0	19
11	Stal Mielec	14	5	4	5	-8	19
12	Arka Gdynia	14	5	3	6	+2	18
13	Stal Rzeszów	14	5	3	6	-7	18
14	Chrobry Głogów	14	3	6	5	-2	15
15	Podbeskidzie	14	2	9	3	-3	15
16	Puszcza Niepołomice	14	4	2	8	-4	14
17	Unia Skierniewice	14	4	2	8	-6	14
18	Odra Opole	14	3	3	8	-10	12

Team

Pts

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

-8

-7

-2

-3

-4

-6

-10

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom?

On our numbers Stal Mielec have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Polonia Bytom 40%.

How many goals will there be in Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom?

We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom?

Our predicted score is Stal Mielec 1–1 Polonia Bytom, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.

When is Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom?

Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom (I Liga) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Stal Mielec v Polonia Bytom: numbers & prediction