Arbroath vs Ayr Utd: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 3 March the Championship brings Arbroath against Ayr Utd at Gayfield Park. Kick-off: 20:45 WAT. In the table, Arbroath are 8th, in the drop zone, on 14 points after 14 matches; Ayr Utd are 7th (lower half) with 15. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Arbroath 1.3 xG, Ayr Utd 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Arbroath 39%, draw 26%, Ayr Utd 35%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arbroath 1–1 Ayr Utd. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Arbroath39%fair 2.54 · @2.25
Draw26%fair 3.84 · @3.30
Ayr Utd35%fair 2.88 · @2.94
2.53Expected goals
1.30Arbroath xG
1.22Ayr Utd xG
58%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Arbroath 1.3 – 1.2 Ayr Utd expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Arbroath
Ayr Utd
Attack vs Championship average
-18%
-8%
Goals conceded vs average
+28%
+27%
Our expected goals here
1.32
1.25
Our own ratings from every Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arbroath to win✗
39%
2.54
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.74
1.80
Draw no bet
Arbroath (draw no bet)
53%
1.88
–
Asian handicap
Ayr Utd +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
First team to score
Arbroath to score first
48%
2.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arbroath / FT Arbroath✗
22%
4.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.03
–
Recent results
Arbroath – last 1
W
21 Feb
vs Dunfermline
4–2
W
4.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Ayr Utd – last 2
LD
24 Feb
vs Inverness CT
1–2
L
21 Feb
vs Ross County
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arbroath and Ayr Utd.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Arbroath vs Ayr Utd?
On our numbers Arbroath have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Ayr Utd 35%.
How many goals will there be in Arbroath vs Ayr Utd?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arbroath vs Ayr Utd?
Our predicted score is Arbroath 1–1 Ayr Utd, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Arbroath vs Ayr Utd?
Arbroath vs Ayr Utd (Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 3 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Gayfield Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Ross County0