Value bet: Dunfermline to win @ 2.85 – our chance 41% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDunfermline to win ✗41% · @2.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.32
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.82
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.16
Arbroath vs Dunfermline: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Arbroath welcome Dunfermline to Gayfield Park for a Championship fixture on Saturday 21 February (16:00 WAT). In the table, Arbroath are 8th, in the drop zone, on 14 points after 14 matches; Dunfermline are 3rd (among the top four) with 25.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Arbroath 0.9 xG, Dunfermline 1.4 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 49%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Arbroath 32%, draw 27%, Dunfermline 41%.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.82.
Price worth noting: Dunfermline to win @2.85 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.23). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arbroath 0–1 Dunfermline. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Arbroath32%fair 3.16 · @2.25
Draw27%fair 3.68 · @3.10
Dunfermline41%fair 2.43 · @2.85
2.28Expected goals
0.92Arbroath xG
1.36Dunfermline xG
49%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–113%
0–010%
0–210%
1–09%
1–29%
From our goals model: Arbroath 0.9 – 1.4 Dunfermline expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Arbroath
Dunfermline
Attack vs Championship average
-18%
+0%
Goals conceded vs average
+28%
-39%
Our expected goals here
0.64
1.36
Our own ratings from every Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Dunfermline to win✗
41%
2.43
2.85 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.32
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
1.82
Draw no bet
Dunfermline (draw no bet)✗
57%
1.77
–
Asian handicap
Arbroath +1 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.23
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
90%
1.11
1.07
First team to score
Dunfermline to score first
54%
1.86
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Dunfermline / FT Dunfermline✗
28%
3.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.16
–
Recent results
Arbroath
No recent results on record.
Dunfermline – last 1
L
17 Feb
@ Morton
0–2
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arbroath and Dunfermline.
What is the prediction for Arbroath vs Dunfermline?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win Arbroath vs Dunfermline?
On our numbers Arbroath have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Dunfermline 41%.
How many goals will there be in Arbroath vs Dunfermline?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arbroath vs Dunfermline?
Our predicted score is Arbroath 0–1 Dunfermline, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Arbroath vs Dunfermline?
Arbroath vs Dunfermline (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Gayfield Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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