Value bet: Birmingham to win @ 2.78 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBirmingham to win ✗40% · @2.78
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.19
Millwall vs Birmingham: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Wednesday 25 February the Championship brings Millwall against Birmingham at The Den. Kick-off: 20:45 WAT. In the table, Millwall are 16th, lower half, on 18 points after 15 matches; Birmingham are 1st (leading the league) with 29.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Millwall 1.2 xG, Birmingham 1.4 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Millwall 34%, draw 26%, Birmingham 40%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Birmingham to win @2.78 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Millwall 1–1 Birmingham. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Millwall34%fair 2.98 · @2.50
Draw26%fair 3.84 · @3.20
Birmingham40%fair 2.47 · @2.78
2.61Expected goals
1.16Millwall xG
1.44Birmingham xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–09%
0–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Millwall 1.2 – 1.4 Birmingham expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Birmingham to win✗
40%
2.47
2.78 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.70
Draw no bet
Birmingham (draw no bet)✗
55%
1.83
–
Asian handicap
Millwall +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.10
First team to score
Birmingham to score first✗
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Birmingham / FT Birmingham✗
26%
3.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.19
–
Recent results
Millwall – last 1
L
21 Feb
vs Portsmouth
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Birmingham – last 1
W
21 Feb
@ Norwich
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Millwall and Birmingham.
What is the prediction for Millwall vs Birmingham?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Millwall vs Birmingham?
On our numbers Millwall have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Birmingham 40%.
How many goals will there be in Millwall vs Birmingham?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Millwall vs Birmingham?
Our predicted score is Millwall 1–1 Birmingham, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Millwall vs Birmingham?
Millwall vs Birmingham (Championship) kicks off on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at The Den.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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