Birmingham v Preston Prediction & Expected Goals (22 Apr) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultBirmingham to win ✓65% · @1.65

Double chanceBirmingham or draw ✓85% · @1.17

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.85

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.30

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.43

Birmingham vs Preston: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Wednesday 22 April the Championship brings Birmingham against Preston at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park. Kick-off: 19:45 WAT. In the table, Birmingham are 1st, leading the league, on 29 points after 15 matches; Preston are 24th (in the drop zone) with 8. There are 21 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Birmingham, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Wrexham, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Preston, last 5: DDWLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with QPR, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Birmingham 2.1 xG, Preston 0.8 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 52%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Birmingham 65%, draw 20%, Preston 15%.
Lower-risk option: Birmingham or draw (85%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Birmingham to win @1.65 – the bookmaker implies 61%, our ratings say 65%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Birmingham 2–0 Preston. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Birmingham65%fair 1.54 · @1.65

Draw20%fair 4.91 · @3.75

Preston15%fair 6.83 · @5.10

2.84Expected goals

2.08Birmingham xG

0.76Preston xG

52%Both score

52%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–013%

1–012%

2–110%

1–19%

3–09%

3–17%

From our goals model: Birmingham 2.1 – 0.8 Preston expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Birmingham to win ✓	65%	1.54	1.65 ▲
Double chance	Birmingham or draw ✓	85%	1.17	1.17
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	52%	1.93	1.85
Draw no bet	Birmingham (draw no bet) ✓	82%	1.23	–
Asian handicap	Birmingham -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	68%	1.47	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	75%	1.33	1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	52%	1.94	1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	70%	1.43	1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	85%	1.18	1.11
First team to score	Birmingham to score first	69%	1.45	–
Half-time result	Birmingham ahead at half-time ✓	49%	2.05	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Birmingham / FT Birmingham ✓	44%	2.25	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✓	10%	10.43	–

Birmingham – last 6

WLLWLL

12 Apr	vs Wrexham	2–0	W
6 Apr	@ Ipswich	1–2	L
3 Apr	vs Blackburn	0–1	L
11 Mar	vs QPR	1–0	W
2 Mar	vs Middlesbrough	1–3	L
25 Feb	@ Millwall	0–3	L

0.8Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

33%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Preston – last 6

DDWLLD

6 Apr	vs QPR	1–1	D
3 Apr	@ Leicester	2–2	D
20 Mar	vs Stoke City	3–1	W
11 Mar	@ Coventry	0–3	L
6 Mar	vs Oxford United	1–3	L
24 Feb	@ Swansea	1–1	D

1.3Scored / game

1.8Conceded / game

83%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29
4	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28
5	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26
7	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	24
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8

Team

Pts

+14

+11

+14

+14

-1

-2

-4

-8

-9

-10

-10

-11

-9

-16

-17

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Birmingham vs Preston?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.

Who will win Birmingham vs Preston?

On our numbers Birmingham have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Preston 15%.

How many goals will there be in Birmingham vs Preston?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Birmingham vs Preston?

Our predicted score is Birmingham 2–0 Preston, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Birmingham vs Preston?

Birmingham vs Preston (Championship) kicks off on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Birmingham v Preston: numbers & prediction