Stevenage vs Barnsley: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 21 April the League One brings Stevenage against Barnsley at Lamex Stadium. Kick-off: 19:45 WAT. In the table, Stevenage are 16th, lower half, on 16 points after 12 matches; Barnsley are 23rd (in the drop zone) with 9.
Current form
Stevenage, last 5: LWDLL Their latest outing: 1–5 defeat to Bolton, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Barnsley, last 5: DLDDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Port Vale, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Stevenage 1.7 xG, Barnsley 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Stevenage 57%, draw 25%, Barnsley 18%.
Lower-risk option: Stevenage or draw (82%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Stevenage 1–0 Barnsley. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Stevenage57%fair 1.77 · @1.71
Draw25%fair 3.97 · @3.60
Barnsley18%fair 5.49 · @4.80
2.56Expected goals
1.69Stevenage xG
0.87Barnsley xG
53%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Stevenage 1.7 – 0.9 Barnsley expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Stevenage
Barnsley
Attack vs League One average
-3%
-21%
Goals conceded vs average
-9%
+14%
Our expected goals here
1.64
0.87
Our own ratings from every League One result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Stevenage to win✓
57%
1.77
1.71
Double chance
Stevenage or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.85
Draw no bet
Stevenage (draw no bet)✓
76%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
Barnsley +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
1.09
First team to score
Stevenage to score first✓
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Stevenage / FT Stevenage✓
35%
2.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.41
–
Recent results
Stevenage – last 6
LWDLLL
14 Apr
@ Bolton
1–5
L
6 Apr
vs Blackpool
1–0
W
3 Apr
@ Rotherham
0–0
D
17 Mar
@ Plymouth
0–1
L
10 Mar
vs Leyton Orient
1–2
L
21 Feb
@ Wycombe
1–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Barnsley – last 6
DLDDDL
14 Apr
@ Port Vale
0–0
D
6 Apr
vs Plymouth
0–3
L
3 Apr
@ Burton Albion
1–1
D
17 Mar
vs Wigan
1–1
D
10 Mar
vs Cardiff
1–1
D
3 Mar
vs Wycombe
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Stevenage and Barnsley.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Stevenage vs Barnsley?
On our numbers Stevenage have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Barnsley 18%.
How many goals will there be in Stevenage vs Barnsley?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Stevenage vs Barnsley?
Our predicted score is Stevenage 1–0 Barnsley, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Stevenage vs Barnsley?
Stevenage vs Barnsley (League One) kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Lamex Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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