Value bet: Port Vale to win @ 2.84 – our chance 40% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPort Vale to win ✗40% · @2.84
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.14
Port Vale vs Barnsley: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Barnsley travel to face Port Vale on Tuesday 14 April in the League One, with Vale Park the venue – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT.
Current form
Port Vale, last 5: WLLLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Rotherham, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Barnsley, last 5: LDDDL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Plymouth, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Port Vale 1.4 xG, Barnsley 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Port Vale 40%, draw 26%, Barnsley 34%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Port Vale to win @2.84 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Port Vale 1–1 Barnsley. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Port Vale40%fair 2.51 · @2.84
Draw26%fair 3.81 · @3.30
Barnsley34%fair 2.94 · @2.42
2.54Expected goals
1.44Port Vale xG
1.11Barnsley xG
56%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Port Vale 1.4 – 1.1 Barnsley expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Port Vale
Barnsley
Attack vs League One average
-12%
-21%
Goals conceded vs average
-8%
+14%
Our expected goals here
1.48
0.89
Our own ratings from every League One result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Port Vale to win✗
40%
2.51
2.84 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.36
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
1.67
Draw no bet
Port Vale (draw no bet)
54%
1.85
–
Asian handicap
Barnsley +1 (Asian handicap)✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.11
First team to score
Port Vale to score first✗
52%
1.92
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Port Vale / FT Port Vale✗
26%
3.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.14
–
Recent results
Port Vale – last 6
WLLLWD
7 Apr
vs Rotherham
1–0
W
24 Mar
@ Doncaster
0–1
L
17 Mar
@ Blackpool
2–3
L
11 Mar
vs Bradford
0–2
L
8 Mar
vs Sunderland
1–0
W
3 Mar
vs Bristol City
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Barnsley – last 6
LDDDLW
6 Apr
vs Plymouth
0–3
L
3 Apr
@ Burton Albion
1–1
D
17 Mar
vs Wigan
1–1
D
10 Mar
vs Cardiff
1–1
D
3 Mar
vs Wycombe
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Leyton Orient
3–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Port Vale and Barnsley.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Port Vale vs Barnsley?
On our numbers Port Vale have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Barnsley 34%.
How many goals will there be in Port Vale vs Barnsley?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Port Vale vs Barnsley?
Our predicted score is Port Vale 1–1 Barnsley, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Port Vale vs Barnsley?
Port Vale vs Barnsley (League One) kicks off on Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Vale Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Rotherham0
Bolton5
Cardiff1