Value bet: SC Freiburg to win @ 2.72 – our chance 42% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSC Freiburg to win ✓42% · @2.72
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓9% · fair 10.75
FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
FC St. Pauli welcome SC Freiburg to Millerntor-Stadion for a Bundesliga fixture on Sunday 22 March (17:30 WAT).
Current form
FC St. Pauli, last 3: LDW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Borussia Mönchengladbach, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
SC Freiburg, last 5: WLLLW Their latest outing: 5–1 win over Genk, at home. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FC St. Pauli 1.2 xG, SC Freiburg 1.6 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FC St. Pauli 31%, draw 26%, SC Freiburg 42%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.90.
Price worth noting: SC Freiburg to win @2.72 – the bookmaker implies 37%, our ratings say 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (71%, odds 1.42). Most likely score in line with that pick: FC St. Pauli 1–1 SC Freiburg. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FC St. Pauli31%fair 3.21 · @2.72
Draw26%fair 3.79 · @2.98
SC Freiburg42%fair 2.35 · @2.72
2.74Expected goals
1.17FC St. Pauli xG
1.57SC Freiburg xG
52%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
0–28%
1–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: FC St. Pauli 1.2 – 1.6 SC Freiburg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
SC Freiburg to win✓
42%
2.35
2.72 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.36
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
1.90
Draw no bet
SC Freiburg (draw no bet)✓
58%
1.73
–
Asian handicap
FC St. Pauli +1 (Asian handicap)
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.06
First team to score
SC Freiburg to score first✗
54%
1.87
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT SC Freiburg / FT SC Freiburg✗
28%
3.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
9%
10.75
–
Recent results
FC St. Pauli – last 3
LDW
13 Mar
@ Borussia Mönchengladbach
0–2
L
8 Mar
vs Eintracht Frankfurt
0–0
D
22 Feb
vs Werder Bremen
2–1
W
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
SC Freiburg – last 5
WLLLW
19 Mar
vs Genk
5–1
W
15 Mar
vs Union Berlin
0–1
L
12 Mar
@ Genk
0–1
L
1 Mar
@ Eintracht Frankfurt
0–2
L
22 Feb
vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
2–1
W
1.4Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC St. Pauli and SC Freiburg.
What is the prediction for FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg?
On our numbers FC St. Pauli have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 26% and SC Freiburg 42%.
How many goals will there be in FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg?
Our predicted score is FC St. Pauli 1–1 SC Freiburg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg?
FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg (Bundesliga) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Millerntor-Stadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
