Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 26 April the Bundesliga brings Borussia Dortmund against SC Freiburg at Signal Iduna Park. Kick-off: 16:30 WAT. In the table, Borussia Dortmund are 2nd, among the top four, on 21 points after 9 matches; SC Freiburg are 3rd (among the top four) with 19. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Borussia Dortmund, last 3: LWW Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Atalanta, away. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
SC Freiburg, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with VfB Stuttgart, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.7 a game lately.
Momentum favours SC Freiburg, collecting 2.7 points per game to 2.0 for Borussia Dortmund.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Borussia Dortmund 1.9 xG, SC Freiburg 1.1 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 60% and GG at 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Borussia Dortmund 60%, draw 20%, SC Freiburg 20%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (61%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Borussia Dortmund 1–1 SC Freiburg. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Borussia Dortmund60%fair 1.67 · @1.35
Draw20%fair 4.89 · @5.00
SC Freiburg20%fair 5.06 · @7.90
3.04Expected goals
1.89Borussia Dortmund xG
1.15SC Freiburg xG
58%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–110%
1–09%
2–09%
3–16%
1–26%
From our goals model: Borussia Dortmund 1.9 – 1.1 SC Freiburg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Borussia Dortmund to win
60%
1.67
1.35
Double chance
Borussia Dortmund or draw
80%
1.25
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
58%
1.72
1.75
Draw no bet
Borussia Dortmund (draw no bet)
75%
1.33
–
Asian handicap
SC Freiburg +1.5 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
81%
1.24
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
60%
1.65
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
61%
1.64
1.62
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
78%
1.28
1.25
First team to score
Borussia Dortmund to score first
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Borussia Dortmund ahead at half-time
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Borussia Dortmund / FT Borussia Dortmund
34%
2.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.17
–
Recent results
Borussia Dortmund – last 3
LWW
25 Feb
@ Atalanta
1–4
L
17 Feb
vs Atalanta
2–0
W
13 Feb
vs FSV Mainz 05
4–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
SC Freiburg – last 6
DWWWWW
23 Apr
@ VfB Stuttgart
1–1
D
19 Apr
vs 1. FC Heidenheim
2–1
W
16 Apr
@ Celta Vigo
3–1
W
9 Apr
vs Celta Vigo
3–0
W
22 Mar
@ FC St. Pauli
2–1
W
19 Mar
vs Genk
5–1
W
2.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg.
What is the prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
On our numbers Borussia Dortmund have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 20% and SC Freiburg 20%.
How many goals will there be in Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our predicted score is Borussia Dortmund 1–1 SC Freiburg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg (Bundesliga) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Signal Iduna Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
