Value bet: PAU to win @ 2.95 – our chance 37% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultGuingamp to win ✗38% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.41
PAU vs Guingamp: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:00 WAT, Friday 17 April: PAU v Guingamp in the Ligue 2, played at Nouste Camp. In the table, PAU are 5th, upper half, on 20 points after 12 matches; Guingamp are 11th (lower half) with 14.
Current form
PAU, last 5: WLDWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Amiens, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Guingamp, last 5: DLWDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Grenoble, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give PAU 1.4 xG, Guingamp 1.4 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – PAU 37%, draw 25%, Guingamp 38%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: PAU to win @2.95 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: PAU 1–1 Guingamp. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
PAU37%fair 2.74 · @2.95
Draw25%fair 4.00 · @3.45
Guingamp38%fair 2.60 · @2.25
2.80Expected goals
1.45PAU xG
1.35Guingamp xG
61%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–06%
From our goals model: PAU 1.4 – 1.4 Guingamp expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Guingamp to win✗
38%
2.60
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.55
Draw no bet
Guingamp (draw no bet)✗
51%
1.95
–
Asian handicap
Guingamp +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.44
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.17
First team to score
PAU to score first✗
49%
2.06
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT PAU / FT PAU✗
23%
4.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.41
–
Recent results
PAU – last 6
WLDWDL
10 Apr
@ Amiens
1–0
W
6 Apr
@ Le Mans
0–4
L
20 Mar
vs Montpellier
0–0
D
13 Mar
@ Clermont Foot
1–0
W
6 Mar
vs Bastia
2–2
D
21 Feb
@ Estac Troyes
3–4
L
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Guingamp – last 5
DLWDD
10 Apr
vs Grenoble
1–1
D
3 Apr
@ Annecy
0–1
L
13 Mar
vs Amiens
1–0
W
6 Mar
@ Laval
2–2
D
23 Feb
@ Le Mans
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
60%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between PAU and Guingamp.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win PAU vs Guingamp?
On our numbers PAU have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Guingamp 38%.
How many goals will there be in PAU vs Guingamp?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for PAU vs Guingamp?
Our predicted score is PAU 1–1 Guingamp, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is PAU vs Guingamp?
PAU vs Guingamp (Ligue 2) kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Nouste Camp.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Le Mans1
Amiens2