Villarreal vs Valencia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
21:00 WAT, Sunday 22 February: Villarreal v Valencia in the La Liga, played at Estadio de la Ceramica. In the table, Villarreal are 8th, upper half, on 15 points after 12 matches; Valencia are 19th (in the drop zone) with 9.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Villarreal 1.8 xG, Valencia 1.0 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Villarreal 58%, draw 23%, Valencia 19%.
Lower-risk option: Villarreal or draw (81%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Villarreal 1–1 Valencia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Villarreal58%fair 1.74 · @1.70
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.80
Valencia19%fair 5.13 · @4.65
2.86Expected goals
1.81Villarreal xG
1.05Valencia xG
57%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–09%
0–16%
3–16%
From our goals model: Villarreal 1.8 – 1.0 Valencia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Villarreal to win✓
58%
1.74
1.70
Double chance
Villarreal or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.80
Draw no bet
Villarreal (draw no bet)✓
75%
1.34
–
Asian handicap
Valencia +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.12
First team to score
Villarreal to score first
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
Villarreal ahead at half-time✓
41%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Villarreal / FT Villarreal✓
34%
2.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.15
–
Recent results
Villarreal – last 1
W
18 Feb
@ Levante
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Valencia – last 1
W
15 Feb
@ Levante
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Villarreal and Valencia.
What is the prediction for Villarreal vs Valencia?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Villarreal vs Valencia?
On our numbers Villarreal have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Valencia 19%.
How many goals will there be in Villarreal vs Valencia?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Villarreal vs Valencia?
Our predicted score is Villarreal 1–1 Valencia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Villarreal vs Valencia?
Villarreal vs Valencia (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de la Ceramica.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mallorca0